3759 S Rodriguez Ave · Naco, AZ 85620

$48,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,039 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1924 ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

3759 S Rodriguez Ave, Naco, AZ 85620 home, is currently estimated at $121,478, approximately $116 per square foot. Located in Cochise County with Naco Elementary School near by.

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#287 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Naco Elementary District (4176) (rural): math 14% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #411 of 501 in AZ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,560 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.12%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $39,417
• Equity at exit: $21,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $93,245
• Equity at exit: $33,262

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85620

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $773/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $425

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $555	-5% $541	+0% $528	+5% $514	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $441	-5% $485	+0% $528	+5% $571	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $540	base $528	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $48,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $48,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $48,000 Active
17. 2024-01-01
    historical
18. 2024-01-01
    historical
19. 2023-11-06
    price $45,000
20. 2023-11-02
    price $45,000
21. 2023-09-05
    price $50,000
22. 2023-09-05
    price $50,000
23. 2023-04-28
    listed $55,000 Active
24. 2023-04-28
    status Active
25. 2023-04-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
26. 2023-04-21
    historical Active Contingent
27. 2023-04-14
    listed $55,000 Active
28. 2023-04-13
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$773
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $5,925
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,422
• After-tax cash flow: $4,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Naco Elementary District (4176)
• NCES district ID: 0405430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,862
• Composite: 14.69/100
• National rank: #14396
• State rank: #411 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Naco

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #24376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naco, AZ
• City population: 1,105
• Population (ZIP): 1,105

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 97%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 14% English-only · Spanish 86%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $48,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-11-02 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $50,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-28 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-28 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-04-21 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-14 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $55,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $773 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.