30519 Lake Circle Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$251,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2021 0.94 ac lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home perfect for comfortable country living in Magnolia! Enjoy an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a great space for gathering and entertaining. The home has recently been painted! It features durable vinyl flooring throughout, generously sized bedrooms, and oversized bathrooms that offer extra comfort and convenience. Situated on a large, unrestricted lot, this property gives you the freedom and space to make it truly your own. Don’t miss the opportunity to see it—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open-concept layout
• 0.94 acre lot
• Built 2021

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE UNRESTRICTED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,262
• List price: $251,000
• Delta: 3.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30410 Scotty St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+1%)	19mo	$189,000	$124	62
30619 High Meadow Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,674 (+10%)	2mo	$199,000	$119	54
37018 Pine Bark Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+3%)	20mo	$257,500	$164	44
30627 Misty Meadow Dr	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-13%)	19mo	$160,000	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $136,561
• Equity at exit: $226,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $386,673
• Equity at exit: $487,638

Cash invested: $70,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $251,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $163	+0% $92	+5% $21	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $1	+0% $92	+5% $182	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $156	base $92	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,750
• Closing costs: $7,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	23d	1	1.30mi
4311 Maple Root Ln Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $251,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $251,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $251,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-01-27
    price $251,000 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home perfect for comfortable country living in Magnolia! Enjoy an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a great space for gathering and entertaining. The home has recently been painted! It features durable vinyl flooring throughout, generously sized bedrooms, and oversized bathrooms that offer extra comfort and convenience. Situated on a large, unrestricted lot, this property gives you the freedom and space to make it truly your own. Don’t miss the opportunity to see it—schedule your showing today!

16. 2025-12-29
    listed $259,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home perfect for comfortable country living in Magnolia! Enjoy an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a great space for gathering and entertaining. The home has recently been painted! It features durable vinyl flooring throughout, generously sized bedrooms, and oversized bathrooms that offer extra comfort and convenience. Situated on a large, unrestricted lot, this property gives you the freedom and space to make it truly your own. Don’t miss the opportunity to see it—schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-12-19
    historical
18. 2025-10-06
    listed $268,000 Active
19. 2025-07-30
    historical
20. 2025-04-17
    listed $252,000 Active
21. 2025-01-30
    historical
22. 2024-08-05
    listed $248,000 Active
23. 2022-07-02
    historical
24. 2022-06-02
    status Active
25. 2022-04-29
    status Pending
26. 2022-03-05
    price $254,000
27. 2022-02-22
    listed $270,000 Active
28. 2020-04-16
    soldstatus
29. 2020-04-15
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2020-03-21
    status Pending
31. 2020-03-12
    status Option Pending
32. 2020-02-22
    price $100,000
33. 2020-01-24
    price $105,000
34. 2020-01-21
    price $114,000
35. 2020-01-14
    status Active
36. 2020-01-10
    status Option Pending
37. 2020-01-04
    price $115,000
38. 2020-01-01
    status Active
39. 2019-12-31
    historical
40. 2019-12-28
    price $119,900
41. 2019-12-03
    price $125,000
42. 2019-11-24
    price $129,900
43. 2019-10-24
    listed $134,900 Active
44. 2000-12-18
    soldstatus
45. 1992-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,570 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,593 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,060
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,302
• Taxable loss: −$3,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.1% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $251,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $268,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $252,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $248,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-05 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-22 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-24 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-21 Price Changed $114,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-04 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-28 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-03 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-24 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2019-10-24 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2000-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,570 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.