The Brambling Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$257,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,993 sqft · SingleFamily · 460 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Brambling has a rear corner covered patio directly accessible from the light-filled family room. A large eat-in island kitchen overlooks the family room for easy entertaining. On the second floor, you can change a spacious loft to a fourth bedroom, which separates the private owner's suite from two secondary bedrooms. The owner's suite includes a massive walk-in closet and private bath and has easy access to the second-floor laundry room.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Spacious loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• REAR CORNER COVERED PATIO
• EAT-IN ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $257,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,628.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,628 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,628
• List price: $257,990
• Delta: -15.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 Cherry Tree Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+1%)	1mo	$305,900	$152	90
828 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,070 (+4%)	2mo	$260,000	$126	75
508 Forest Village Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,042 (+2%)	0mo	$275,000	$135	68
429 Branch Oak Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,877 (-6%)	1mo	$285,000	$152	67
765 Camden Valley Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,941 (-3%)	0mo	$285,900	$147	66
652 Burlina Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-14%)	2mo	$255,190	$149	66
873 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+7%)	1mo	$310,000	$145	61
1009 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-14%)	1mo	$254,990	$149	58
1085 Garnet Star Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-6%)	2mo	$306,990	$164	58
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-6%)	2mo	$295,990	$158	56
1074 Garnet Star Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,732 (-13%)	2mo	$295,990	$171	49
1090 Garnet Star Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-13%)	0mo	$289,990	$167	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-75,826
• Equity at exit: $45,272

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-94,396
• Equity at exit: $26,252

Cash invested: $85,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 127 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.4 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $286,490 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,554/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $238,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-345	+0% $-450	+5% $-555	+10% $-660
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-533	+0% $-450	+5% $-368	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-373	base $-450	+0.5pp $-529	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,907
• Closing costs: $9,109
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	69d	1	0.60mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	93d	1	1.43mi
6218 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $257,990 Active 460 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $257,990 Active 458 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $257,990 Active 457 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $257,990 Active 456 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $257,990 Active 455 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $257,990 Active 452 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $257,990 Active 450 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $257,990 Active 449 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $257,990 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $257,990 Active 445 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $257,990 Active 444 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $257,990 Active 443 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $257,990 Active 442 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $257,990 Active 441 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $257,990 Active 439 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $257,990 Active 438 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $257,990 Active 437 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $257,990 Active 436 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $257,990 Active 435 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $257,990 Active 434 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $257,990 Active 433 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $257,990 Active 432 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $257,990 Active 431 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $257,990 Active 430 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $257,990 Active 428 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $257,990 Active 427 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $257,990 Active 426 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $257,990 Active 425 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $257,990 Active 424 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $257,990 Active 423 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $257,990 Active 422 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $257,990 Active 421 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $257,990 Active 420 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $257,990 Active 419 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $257,990 Active 418 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $257,990 Active 417 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $257,990 Active 415 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $257,990 Active 413 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $257,990 Active 412 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $257,990 Active 409 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $257,990 Active 408 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $257,990 Active 407 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $257,990 Active 406 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $257,990 Active 404 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $257,990 Active 403 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $257,990 Active 400 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $257,990 Active 399 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,990 Active 398 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,990 Active 395 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,990 Active 394 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,008
• − Property taxes: −$4,554
• − Insurance: −$1,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$8,833
• Taxable loss: −$10,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,965–$29,895 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior, and HVAC system. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior brick and siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans can reduce utility costs and attract renters ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase property value and attract both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-06 Listed $250,990 Zillow