1720 Arabian Ln · East Lake, FL 34685

$440,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,160 sqft · Townhouse public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1993 4,352 sqft lot Est $616k · 29% under $343/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gated with LOW HOA Fees! * * ANOTHER PRICE REDUCTION * * MUCH BELOW MARKET VALUE * * Picture yourself in this HUGE 3 story, 4 Bedroom/3.5 Bath END UNIT Townhome with high ceilings priced right AS IS so you can apply your personal touches! The ENTIRE TOP FLOOR is the spacious Primary Suite complete with double built-in bookshelves that surround a relaxing sitting area, Dual Walk-in Closets and en-suite bathroom with soaking tub, oversized shower, dual vanities and water closet with separate bidet and toilet. (Or make it a fun third floor! A Great big room for entertainment!) Your 2nd floor features 3 bedrooms, one being a second primary suite, and 2 more generous sized bedrooms with new

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Gated community
• End unit

Tags

• END UNIT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported $343; Total annual fees reported $4,116; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $290; Association includes pool maintenance; Community amenities: gated entry, pool, tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x24) with garage door opener; Driveway; Ground-level parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Three or more levels (3 stories); Northeast facing entry
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit community
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch; Paved, landscaped, level lot; Conservation area nearby; Lake access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds, rods, and tinted windows; Family room and Florida room; Wood-burning fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry area located in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $414k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in East Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#660 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest Lakes Elementary School (math 74% / reading 73%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 498 students, 36% FRL); East Lake High School (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 2,286 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $440k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $616,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1576 Lago Vista Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,975 (-6%)	15mo	$630,000	$212	55
1524 Lago Vista Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,975 (-6%)	15mo	$550,000	$185	52
1622 Lago Vista Blvd	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,633 (+15%)	11mo	$709,000	$195	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-90,825
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-136,396
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34685

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$692 /mo · $8,309/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$343
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$926
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,548

Max offer price $420,549

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $14	+0% $-110	+5% $-235	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-284	+0% $-110	+5% $64	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $2	base $-110	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 Palmdale Dr Oldsmar, FL	5.0	3.0	3035	$5,999	$1.98	25d	1	0.47mi
300 Cypress Creek Cir Oldsmar, FL	4.0	3.5	2730	$4,200	$1.54	5d	1	0.79mi
5107 Pinnacle Dr Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	2404	$2,750	$1.14	5d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $343 · $4,116/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $440,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    price $450,000
14. 2026-04-29
    price $465,000
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $475,000 Active
16. 2013-07-27
    historical
17. 2013-07-20
    listed $275,000
18. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus $125,000
19. 1993-05-13
    soldstatus $157,000
20. 1992-12-04
    soldstatus $326,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,309 · $692/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,309 · $692/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$8,309
• − Insurance: −$2,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,232
• − Management: −$4,232
• − HOA: −$4,116
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$8,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,024
• After-tax cash flow: $703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #660
• US rank: #13305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Lake, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 26,662
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,132
• Household income: $94,688
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.72%
• Current HPI: 271.7995
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-20 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $326,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,309 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.