4915 Tulip Dr · West Pensacola, FL 32506

$179,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1989 0.50 ac lot $147/sqft · 13% above area Est $159k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable homeownership opportunity on a ½ acre fully fenced lot! Home is perfect for buyers ready to stop renting and create their own space. The home offers a great layout and strong potential for updates, making it ideal for those willing to put in some work and build equity. Enjoy a large yard with room for pets, gardening, or future improvements. A rare chance to own land and customize a home to your style at an approachable price point. Newer roof. Solar system will provide owner with lower electric. HURRY BEFORE ITS GONE

Key facts

• Large yard
• Solar system
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• LARGE YARD
• SOLAR SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $180k implies a 1408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,293 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,244
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: 12.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4915 Tulip Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,229 (+0%)	1mo	$186,500	$152	99
1416 N 48th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,123 (-8%)	1mo	$159,000	$142	75
1402 N 57th Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+5%)	4mo	$247,500	$192	67
35 Randolph Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,182 (-3%)	2mo	$167,900	$142	65
4953 Martha Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	4mo	$220,000	$196	64
1106 N 50th Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-11%)	5mo	$190,000	$175	61
1308 N 48th Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,111 (-9%)	11mo	$110,000	$99	60
110 Tomahawk Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+12%)	8mo	$151,000	$110	56
4519 Martha Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-4%)	8mo	$187,000	$159	55
18 Besma Dr	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,342 (+10%)	5mo	$95,000	$71	55
233 Tonawanda Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,308 (+7%)	4mo	$200,000	$153	54
4905 State St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,074 (-12%)	11mo	$185,000	$172	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,692
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,099
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,163/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Vanderbilt Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	21d	1	0.32mi
4519 Martha Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.61mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	23d	1	0.95mi
5501 Mayfair Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,295	$1.42	23d	1	1.16mi
707 New York Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,185	$0.94	23d	1	1.18mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	23d	1	1.20mi
316 Teakwood Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.28mi
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	14d	9	1.32mi
4600 Twin Oaks Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,499	$1.79	14d	29	1.34mi
5207 Charbar Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $179,500 Active 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Affordable homeownership opportunity on a ½ acre fully fenced lot! Home is perfect for buyers ready to stop renting and create their own space. The home offers a great layout and strong potential for updates, making it ideal for those willing to put in some work and build equity. Enjoy a large yard with room for pets, gardening, or future improvements. A rare chance to own land and customize a home to your style at an approachable price point. Newer roof. Solar system will provide owner with lower electric. HURRY BEFORE ITS GONE

2. 1971-01-01
   soldstatus $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,163
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable loss: −$1,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Pensacola

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #12275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1408.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $179,500 PARMLS
• 1971-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,163 · +188.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.