312 Ellen St · Sanborn, IA 51248

$78,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1910 Est $145k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Small-town home with strong rental, investment, or starter-home potential. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath property on the main floor plus an unfinished basement, detached garage and shed. Major exterior improvements have already been completed, including newer siding and windows within the last 2 years. The home features a spacious living room, functional kitchen, full bathroom, and additional upper-level bonus/storage space. Interior cosmetic updates are still needed, making this a great opportunity to add value and build equity while avoiding many of the larger exterior expenses already completed. Sold as-is Great option for investors, DIY buyers, landlords, or anyone looking for an affordable ho

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Newer siding
• Newer windows

Tags

• MAJOR EXTERIOR IMPROVEMENTS
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER WINDOWS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($903 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#184 in IA, #3,267 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #111 of 289 in IA (top 38%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in O'Brien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• O'Brien County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,408
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 W 3rd St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	982 (-4%)	11mo	$87,500	$89	65
509 W 7th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	988 (-4%)	8mo	$140,000	$142	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $28,340
• Equity at exit: $41,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $75,943
• Equity at exit: $70,496

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51248

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $219	+0% $197	+5% $174	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $161	+0% $197	+5% $232	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $216	base $197	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $78,000 Under Contract 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $78,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $78,000 Active 724-char remark
15. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$867
• − Management: −$867
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $1,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1913660
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,177
• Composite: 61.08/100
• National rank: #790
• State rank: #111 of 289 in IA

Livability — Sanborn

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #3267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanborn, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,643

Population outlook (O'Brien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,353 people
• By 2030: 13,040 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 12,422 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 11,887 · -11.0%
• By 2075: 11,132 · -16.6%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 32% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · O'Brien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.0% · R 80.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+56.8 2016: R+60.2 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• Current HPI: 156.0434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+41.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-16 Listed $78,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.