Lancia's Noah Shane II Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$313,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Excellent condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Noah Shane II is a spacious two-story with features to meet your family's needs. Great Room has triple windows and is open to the Kitchen and Nook. Kitchen has corner pantry, island with half shell shape breakfast bar. Office or Bonus Room with French doors off Foyer. Owner Suite Bedroom 1 has walk-in closet, Bath has dual sink vanity, linen closet and 5' Shower. Bedroom 4 also has a walk-in closet. Cubbie Lockers in Laundry Room Large Loft with alcove area at the top of the stairs. 42" cabinet by Garage hallway 3-Car space in Garage can also be upgraded to an additional Owner suite, 5th Bedroom, Mother-in-Law Suite or added living space with an additional entrance added from Nook. A full basement is available. 3-Car Garage with 2-cars deep is standard. (Garage entry into attic storage not available above standard Garage due to access on 2nd floor. ) * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• 5' shower
• Walk-in closet
• Linen closet

Tags

• CORNER PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• LINEN CLOSET
• 5' SHOWER
• CUBBIE LOCKERS

🏗️ New construction. The $313,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $452,225.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-863 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $276,232 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,225
• List price: $313,900
• Delta: -30.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Grantham Psge	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,917 (+10%)	2mo	$610,000	$209	76
11421 Trails North Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,678 (+1%)	4mo	$349,900	$131	72
604 Merriweather Psge	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,346 (-11%)	7mo	$455,000	$194	72
377 Carrara Cv	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,444 (-8%)	2mo	$449,900	$184	70
1021 Wingate Dr	0.46mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,661 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$101	67
516 Grantham Psge	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,934 (+11%)	4mo	$610,000	$208	65
12124 Wellingham Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-7%)	3mo	$330,000	$135	62
606 Grantham Psge	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,259 (-15%)	4mo	$557,000	$247	59
11718 Grand River Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-14%)	1mo	$371,828	$163	59
11510 Trails North Dr	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,716 (+3%)	7mo	$300,000	$110	57
280 Montalcino Run	0.42mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,340 (-12%)	1mo	$440,000	$188	55
210 Dittons Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,264 (-14%)	4mo	$387,000	$171	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-112,692
• Equity at exit: $67,428

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-98,184
• Equity at exit: $39,100

Cash invested: $126,623 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$565 /mo · $6,783/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,019

Max offer price $327,370

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,056
• Closing costs: $13,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11111 Kings Xing Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	3700	$3,600	$0.97	21d	1	0.71mi
562 Highfields Cv Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2413	$2,700	$1.12	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,900 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,900 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,900 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,900 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $313,900 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,900 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $313,900 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,900 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,900 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $313,900 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,900 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $313,900 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,700 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,700 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $302,700 Active 281 DOM
16. 2025-08-22
    listed $302,700 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Noah Shane II is a spacious two-story with features to meet your family's needs. Great Room has triple windows and is open to the Kitchen and Nook. Kitchen has corner pantry, island with half shell shape breakfast bar. Office or Bonus Room with French doors off Foyer. Owner Suite Bedroom 1 has walk-in closet, Bath has dual sink vanity, linen closet and 5' Shower. Bedroom 4 also has a walk-in closet. Cubbie Lockers in Laundry Room Large Loft with alcove area at the top of the stairs. 42" cabinet by Garage hallway 3-Car space in Garage can also be upgraded to an additional Owner suite, 5th Bedroom, Mother-in-Law Suite or added living space with an additional entrance added from Nook. A full basement is available. 3-Car Garage with 2-cars deep is standard. (Garage entry into attic storage not available above standard Garage due to access on 2nd floor. ) * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,332
• − Property taxes: −$6,783
• − Insurance: −$2,261
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,810
• − Management: −$2,810
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$13,156
• Taxable loss: −$18,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 467.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Listed $302,700 Zillow