55 Newtown Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,800,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,789 sqft · Land · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern Coastal Retreat – Pre-Construction in Hampton Bays Introducing 55 Newtown Road, a rare opportunity to own a newly built, modern masterpiece in the heart of Hampton Bays. This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed for elevated living, featuring an open-concept floor plan, soaring ceilings, and large windows throughout that invite in natural light and seamlessly connect the interior to the outdoors. Set on a sprawling . 76-acre property, the home will include a private pool, expansive patio space, and lush surroundings ideal for summer gatherings. Perfectly located just a short distance from the bay and minutes to the ocean beaches, restaurants, and all that the

Key facts

• Private pool
• 0.76 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL
• EXPANSIVE PATIO SPACE
• SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE BAY
• MINUTES TO THE OCEAN BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.38M (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.04M (42.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.04M (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,385/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $1.80M implies a 454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,038,489 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-389,053
• Equity at exit: $268,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-287,784
• Equity at exit: $155,631

Cash invested: $504,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,677/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,181
• Net cashflow: $-2,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,391

Max offer price $1,380,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,356	-5% $-1,866	+0% $-2,375	+5% $-2,885	+10% $-3,394
Rent	-10% $-3,195	-5% $-2,785	+0% $-2,375	+5% $-1,965	+10% $-1,555
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,469	-0.5pp $-1,917	base $-2,375	+0.5pp $-2,842	+1.0pp $-3,316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $450,000
• Closing costs: $54,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
57 Newtown Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2690	$25,000	$9.29	25d	1	0.01mi
18 Quail Run Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	3000	$4,500	$1.50	25d	1	0.38mi
20 Stuart Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.5	2168	$20,000	$9.23	25d	1	0.51mi
10 Sagamore Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	5.0	3500	$11,250	$3.21	8d	1	0.82mi
190A Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2742	$70,000	$25.53	25d	1	0.85mi
28 Canoe Place Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2870	$45,000	$15.68	44d	1	0.86mi
10 Ginny Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2596	$30,000	$11.56	25d	1	0.98mi
78 North Rd Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	3480	$20,000	$5.75	22d	1	0.99mi
71 Old Canoe Place Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$20,000	$8.70	44d	1	1.09mi
9 Carter Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2820	$90,000	$31.91	25d	1	1.10mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	20d	1	1.15mi
2 W Hillover Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2000	$25,000	$12.50	20d	1	1.20mi
38 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2200	$20,000	$9.09	44d	1	1.26mi
9 Tramposh Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	6d	1	1.28mi
30 Squires Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2220	$25,000	$11.26	25d	1	1.34mi
6 Bay Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	3032	$18,000	$5.94	12d	1	1.39mi
6 Peconic Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2500	$38,000	$15.20	44d	1	1.43mi
6 W Landing Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2291	$30,000	$13.09	7d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-27
   listed $1,800,000 Active
3. 2024-07-08
   soldstatus $325,000
4. 2016-01-15
   historical
5. 2014-01-29
   listed $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,677 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,549 · $1,462/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,871/yr (+$1,073/mo · 275.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $124,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,677
• − Insurance: −$9,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,969
• − Management: −$9,969
• − Depreciation: −$52,364
• Taxable loss: −$62,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+453.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $1,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-29 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,677 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.