15217 Myrtle St · Dade City, FL 33523

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1963 1.28 ac lot Est $251k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PACKAGE DEAL Investor Special Alert – 3 Homes, 3 Parcels, Endless Potential! Situated on 1.28 acres in Dade City, 15201, 15207, & 15217 Myrtle Street offers three separate homes each with their own address and legal description. 15201 & 15201 are both 2 BR/1BA. 15217 is a 3BR/1BA. All properties need full rehab—ideal for experienced investors ready for a serious project. Wood frame home built in 1942 - TEARDOWN. Block homes built in 1963. Must be sold as a package. County zoning could allow more density (buyer to verify), each parcel can be further subdivided. Room to develop, rent, or flip—bring your vision and crew!

Key facts

• 1.28 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared and dirt road access; Approximately 1.28 acres (about 1 to less than 2 acres)
• Financial info: Property homesteaded; No lease restrictions; Tax information not included per instructions
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Public sewer connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing east; Property listed as a fixer
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as one-level; Living area about 1,344 square feet
• Exterior features: On-site storage / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling listed
• Interior features: No interior features listed; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($290/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 132% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,511 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,328
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15316 17th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	64
36850 Blanton Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$225,000	$195	55
15301 16th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	22mo	$170,000	$131	50
14806 Dade	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,252 (-7%)	21mo	$80,000	$64	40
37302 Marshall Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,256 (-6%)	21mo	$235,000	$187	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $121,386
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $356,311
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.56mi
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,761	$1.69	21d	1	0.80mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,391	$2.79	4d	1	1.09mi
37802 Whitehouse Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,150	$0.86	23d	1	1.14mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	16d	1	1.33mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	4d	1	1.34mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	3d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 629-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $220,000 Pending 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+131.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid