York II Garage Plan · Charles Town, WV 25414

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,665 sqft · Townhouse · 502 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Garage
• Listed 502 days

Tags

• ATTACHED 1 CAR GARAGE
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $278,990

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (included in York II Garage plan)
• Home design: Single-family plan with garage; Located at 77 Aragon Dr, Charles Town, WV 25414
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,665

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: York II Garage

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $306,360.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Charles Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#22 in WV, #3,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Page Jackson Elementary (365 students, 0% FRL); Charles Town Middle School (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #40 of 109 statewide, top 37%, 637 students, 0% FRL); Washington High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #11 of 110 statewide, top 11%, 1,328 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 502 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,594 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 502 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Bolingbroke Way	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+0%)	2mo	$311,645	$186	86
369 Aragon Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,674 (+0%)	1mo	$303,808	$181	84
361 Aragon Dr	0.25mi	3/3.5	1,674 (+0%)	0mo	$324,990	$194	83
70 Bolingbroke Way	0.25mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-4%)	5mo	$299,990	$187	74
89 Bolingbroke Way	0.27mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-4%)	4mo	$287,849	$180	73
118 Bolingbroke Way	0.29mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-4%)	4mo	$302,421	$189	73
85 Bolingbroke Way	0.27mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-4%)	6mo	$293,990	$184	72
97 Bolingbroke Way	0.28mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	7mo	$304,014	$190	66
114 Bolingbroke Way	0.25mi	3/3.5	1,900 (+14%)	2mo	$332,392	$175	59
35 Bolingbroke Way	0.22mi	3/3.5	1,900 (+14%)	5mo	$309,990	$163	58
93 Bolingbroke Way	0.28mi	3/3.5	1,900 (+14%)	7mo	$324,784	$171	54
309 Aragon Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (+14%)	6mo	$315,000	$166	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $11,401
• Equity at exit: $132,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $84,665
• Equity at exit: $199,470

Cash invested: $85,781 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25414

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,607
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,595/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,680

Max offer price $253,313

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-261	+0% $-367	+5% $-472	+10% $-578
Rent	-10% $-542	-5% $-454	+0% $-367	+5% $-279	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-212	-0.5pp $-289	base $-367	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,590
• Closing costs: $9,191
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Towton PL Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,995	$1.29	26d	1	0.23mi
114 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,090	$1.23	26d	1	0.82mi
135 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	4.0	3.5	2097	$2,400	$1.14	26d	1	0.85mi
509 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,150	$1.10	26d	1	0.85mi
19 Winterplace Dr Charles Town, WV	4.0	3.5	2095	$2,100	$1.00	14d	1	0.89mi
10 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	3.0	4.0	2097	$2,300	$1.10	26d	1	0.93mi
458 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,100	$1.08	26d	1	1.02mi
450 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1793	$2,050	$1.14	14d	1	1.02mi
439 Seeback Dr Unit 255 Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,100	$1.09	22d	1	1.02mi
470 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,100	$1.08	26d	1	1.02mi
454 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	4.0	1952	$2,100	$1.08	26d	1	1.02mi
478 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,200	$1.13	22d	1	1.02mi
214 Gumspring Dr Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,500	$1.16	22d	1	1.29mi
115 Bell Tower Ln Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,600	$1.17	4d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 502 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 501 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 500 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 497 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,990 Active 496 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,990 Active 495 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,990 Active 494 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,990 Active 493 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,161
• − Property taxes: −$4,595
• − Insurance: −$1,532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$8,912
• Taxable loss: −$9,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Charles Town

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #3460

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 21,073
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 21,073
• Household income: $105,500
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 296.8007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0