5114 Autumn Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77091

$231,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1976 3,776 sqft lot Est $348k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Won't Last Long! Don't sleep on this charming 1822 Square foot, 3 Bed, 2 and 1/2 bath home in the beautiful deed restricted Candlelight Village Oaks Subidivison. This home has it all. The primary bedroom is downstairs with a well appointed kitchen, and glass sliding doors that go out to your own private covered patio. The living room is a must see with laminate flooring, a beautiful fireplace and high ceilings. The neighborhood is quiet, peaceful and charming. All appliances stay. This home will not last long. Come and see for yourself.

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Fireplace
• Ample storage

Tags

• INVITING FOYER
• WELL-APPOINTED LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HARD SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Part of Candlelight Oaks Village association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Living area approximately 1,822
• Construction: Built in 1976; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 3,776 sq ft; Lot described as Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (8 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (12 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (9 x 14)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: One fireplace; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($249/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clifton Middle (math 9% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 509 students, 98% FRL); Scarborough H S (math 19% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 750 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,143/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $232k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,265 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,002
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5027 Golden Forest Dr Unit A	0.20mi	3/3.5	1,866 (+2%)	3mo	$370,000	$198	78
5016 Golden Forest Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,922 (+6%)	3mo	$374,990	$195	77
5018 Golden Forest Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,922 (+6%)	3mo	$369,990	$193	76
5013 Golden Forest Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,950 (+7%)	1mo	$359,995	$185	75
4922 Hoover St Unit C	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,771 (-3%)	0mo	$309,950	$175	71
4922 Hoover St Unit B	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,771 (-3%)	3mo	$309,950	$175	69
5822 Birchmont Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,706 (-6%)	2mo	$434,900	$255	65
4922 Hoover St Unit F	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,691 (-7%)	1mo	$299,950	$177	63
4922 Hoover St Unit A	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-6%)	3mo	$309,500	$182	62
4922 Hoover St Unit E	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-6%)	4mo	$299,950	$176	62
5630 Azores	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-5%)	1mo	$329,900	$191	54
5314 Verdome Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,680 (-8%)	3mo	$338,000	$201	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,039
• Equity at exit: $34,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,861
• Equity at exit: $20,016

Cash invested: $64,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77091

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,214
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,338/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,116

Max offer price $231,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,875
• Closing costs: $6,945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5131 Spring Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,295	$1.27	24d	1	0.01mi
5359 Deep Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,409	$1.15	24d	1	0.41mi
6123 Birchmont Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	43d	1	0.73mi
6240 Antoine Dr Unit 6273 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,432	$0.96	2d	1	0.85mi
6230 Rena St Unit 1316407P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1765	$6,957	$3.94	3d	1	0.90mi
6200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,300	$1.18	2d	11	0.90mi
6318 Leaf Arbor Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,250	$1.52	43d	1	0.97mi
5503 Bertellis Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	24d	1	0.97mi
4701 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1508	$2,400	$1.59	4d	1	1.03mi
4601 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,395	$1.56	24d	1	1.06mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	22d	1	1.33mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	43d	1	1.33mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 3613 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,970	$1.53	22d	1	1.41mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 3615B Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,845	$1.44	15d	1	1.41mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 4833 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,617	$1.03	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $231,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 578-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,338 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,338 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,968
• − Property taxes: −$4,338
• − Insurance: −$1,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$6,735
• Taxable loss: −$3,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$864
• After-tax cash flow: $1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,728
• Household income: $35,432
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3210.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 45% Two or more races 15% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.19%
• Current HPI: 283.7523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+205.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,565 RENT.
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-05-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-07 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,338 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.