15207 High Point Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$252,455

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The BROOKDALE IV G in High Point community offers a 3-bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open and split design. This home includes upgraded cabinets, quartz countertops, and more! Special Features: double vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet in master bath, walk-in closet in bedrooms 2 and 3, pantry, covered porches, undermount sinks, LED lighting, crown molding, ceiling fans in living and master, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, landscaping package, architectural 30-year shingles, and more! Energy Efficient Features: water heater, electric kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more! Energy Star Partner.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $252,455 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,216.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lyman Elementary School (math 62% / reading 50%, grade C+, #39 of 375 statewide, top 10%, 490 students, 99% FRL); Harrison Central High School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #58 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,315 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15207 High Point Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (0%)	0mo	$252,455	$155	100
15115 High Point Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+5%)	1mo	$262,996	$154	87
15188 High Point Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-7%)	3mo	$248,015	$163	86
15093 High Point Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-7%)	3mo	$249,777	$165	82
15299 High Point Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-7%)	4mo	$246,695	$163	80
15363 Serene St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+5%)	1mo	$256,417	$150	80
15264 High Point Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+5%)	3mo	$263,780	$154	79
15071 Stockridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-5%)	3mo	$246,290	$159	76
15162 High Point Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+14%)	0mo	$275,477	$149	75
15163 High Point Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+14%)	2mo	$279,164	$151	74
15005 Stockridge Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-7%)	3mo	$240,540	$159	72
15033 Stockridge Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-7%)	2mo	$241,738	$159	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,673
• Equity at exit: $38,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,992
• Equity at exit: $22,326

Cash invested: $72,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,354
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,873/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $242,504

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-19	+0% $-109	+5% $-198	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-194	+0% $-109	+5% $-23	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-43	base $-109	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,554
• Closing costs: $7,746
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15395 Percy St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	45d	1	0.45mi
15740 Rachael Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,400	$1.24	15d	1	0.66mi
15033 S White Swan Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,495	$1.29	23d	1	0.96mi
15336 Lakeview Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,195	$1.19	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricinternetlandscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $252,455 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,464
• − Property taxes: −$3,873
• − Insurance: −$1,291
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,512
• Taxable loss: −$5,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $73/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a clean exterior, well-maintained landscaping, and no visible repairs needed. Key updates to enhance value include exterior painting and gutter maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves water drainage and can prevent future damage, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves water drainage and can prevent future damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-16 Listed $252,455 MLSU