15623 Hastings Park · Selma, TX 78154

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 7,762 sqft lot $116/sqft · 29% below area Est $280k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR INFORMATION PLEASE CALL BLAKE OR ANDREW @ 210-651-1646 PULTE REGALIA PLAN. 1762 SQ FT. LOCATED IN BEAUTIFUL RETAMA RIDGE JUST 1 HALF MILE OF 1604 & I35. ALL HOMES BUILT ON OVERSIZED HOMESITES. GREAT LOCATION NEAR SHOPPING & ENTERTAINMENT! MOST POPULAR ONE STORY PLAN. GIBRALTER COUNTERTOPS. LOTS OF TILE.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE VANITY
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Down payment resource not indicated
• HOA & community: Located in the Lookout Meadow community (RETAMA RIDGE subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke alarm
• Utilities: Water system; Electric water heater; City garbage service
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Built by Pulte; Approximate age: 21 years
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick and siding exterior; Three-sided masonry; Subdivision: RETAMA RIDGE; Lot in Lookout Meadow community

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Smooth cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Solid countertops; Walk-in pantry; 12 x 12 kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and full bath; Bedroom 2 (14 x 10); Bedroom 3 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Smoke alarm; Security system (owned); Garage door opener; Solid countertops; City garbage service; Living/dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar; Two eating areas; Walk-in pantry; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps; High ceilings; Open floor plan; All bedrooms downstairs; Laundry on main level; Walk-in closets; Attic with pull-down stairs; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (8 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#434 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Meadows El (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 892 students, 62% FRL); Kitty Hawk Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,237 students, 60% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 506 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,053 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,879
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -28.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7710 Derby	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+1%)	2mo	$264,990	$152	84
8203 Ellerston	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+2%)	1mo	$249,000	$142	80
15802 Delaware	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,931 (+12%)	5mo	$295,000	$153	73
15843 Brisbane	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+4%)	7mo	$179,900	$100	72
7911 Saratoga	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-7%)	2mo	$274,900	$171	65
7706 Ruidoso Chase	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-1%)	6mo	$255,000	$149	65
7731 Derby Run	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-3%)	9mo	$255,500	$153	58
7635 Derby Run	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (-3%)	3mo	$280,000	$167	58
16411 Alamo Derby	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,856 (+7%)	4mo	$234,800	$127	57
16427 Kentucky Rdg	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,624 (-6%)	4mo	$249,000	$153	57
16306 Rosebud Vis	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-12%)	3mo	$275,000	$182	50
16506 Caballo Vly	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,988 (+15%)	2mo	$234,900	$118	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-46,091
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-70,892
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78154

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,951/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $176,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-78	+0% $-135	+5% $-192	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-205	+0% $-135	+5% $-65	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-84	base $-135	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8110 Rosespur Park Selma, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,800	$1.02	25d	1	0.19mi
15803 Borwick Ln Selma, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,595	$0.91	25d	1	0.24mi
8130 Rosespur Park Selma, TX	4.0	2.0	2086	$1,875	$0.90	14d	1	0.25mi
7902 Derby Vis Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,895	$0.95	45d	1	0.27mi
16302 Amberly Ct Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,000	$1.15	12d	1	0.44mi
7601 Gateway Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,536	$1.54	0d	25	0.44mi
15400 Lookout Rd Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$2,159	$1.95	3d	28	0.52mi
15453 Lookout Rd Selma, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,655	$1.96	3d	25	0.52mi
16505 Lookout Rd Selma, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,785	$1.82	0d	24	0.71mi
7311 N Loop 1604 E San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,377	$1.62	0d	27	0.72mi
16611 Tenaca Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,895	$1.01	45d	1	0.78mi
7410 Tranquillo Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.89mi
16833 Showdown Path Unit 2 Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	1151	$1,300	$1.13	45d	1	0.95mi
16819 Dancing Ava Unit 1 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,575	$1.21	6d	1	0.96mi
16808 Dancing Ava Unit 3 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1219	$1,295	$1.06	45d	1	0.96mi
8246 Phoenix Ave Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	25d	1	0.98mi
16824 Dancing Ava Unit 1 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1160	$2,600	$2.24	45d	1	1.00mi
16905 Dancing Ava Unit 2 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1175	$1,425	$1.21	45d	1	1.04mi
13803 Laramie Hl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,095	$1.13	16d	1	1.05mi
16917 Dancing Ava Unit 3 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1219	$1,324	$1.09	23d	1	1.07mi
8323 Breezy Cv Unit 3 Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	1219	$1,450	$1.19	25d	1	1.10mi
16918 Spirit Brk Unit 4 Selma, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,325	$0.95	45d	1	1.12mi
16922 Spirit Brk Unit 2 Selma, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,325	$0.95	45d	1	1.14mi
8335 Athenian Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,725	$0.98	19d	1	1.19mi
8335 Athenian Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,725	$0.98	25d	1	1.19mi
14406 Staghorn Gate San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2144	$2,300	$1.07	45d	1	1.21mi
13905 Oak Mdws Universal City, TX	1.0–3.0	2.0	926	$1,249	$1.35	45d	7	1.23mi
14443 Mountainside Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2195	$1,695	$0.77	25d	1	1.24mi
7122 Teton Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,850	$1.22	25d	1	1.25mi
7322 Raintree Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,690	$1.15	3d	1	1.29mi
7011 Raintree Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	25d	1	1.34mi
9027 Harbour Town Selma, TX	3.0	2.5	2136	$1,800	$0.84	45d	1	1.40mi
9006 Pinseeker Selma, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	3d	1	1.40mi
13515 Demeter Universal City, TX	4.0	3.0	1928	$1,945	$1.01	23d	1	1.42mi
7828 Pat Booker Rd Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,873	$1.87	0d	52	1.44mi
13519 Thessaly Universal City, TX	4.0	2.5	2099	$3,100	$1.48	45d	1	1.46mi
14819 Wilmington Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,890	$1.20	45d	1	1.46mi
13316 Reid Mdws Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,395	$1.04	45d	1	1.47mi
6839 Raintree Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,569	$1.01	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $199,900 New 767-char remark
2. 2005-06-25
   soldstatus 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   FOR INFORMATION PLEASE CALL BLAKE OR ANDREW @ 210-651-1646 PULTE REGALIA PLAN. 1762 SQ FT. LOCATED IN BEAUTIFUL RETAMA RIDGE JUST 1 HALF MILE OF 1604 & I35. ALL HOMES BUILT ON OVERSIZED HOMESITES. GREAT LOCATION NEAR SHOPPING & ENTERTAINMENT! MOST POPULAR ONE STORY PLAN. GIBRALTER COUNTERTOPS. LOTS OF TILE.

3. 2005-05-08
   listed $150,470 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   FOR INFORMATION PLEASE CALL BLAKE OR ANDREW @ 210-651-1646 PULTE REGALIA PLAN. 1762 SQ FT. LOCATED IN BEAUTIFUL RETAMA RIDGE JUST 1 HALF MILE OF 1604 & I35. ALL HOMES BUILT ON OVERSIZED HOMESITES. GREAT LOCATION NEAR SHOPPING & ENTERTAINMENT! MOST POPULAR ONE STORY PLAN. GIBRALTER COUNTERTOPS. LOTS OF TILE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,951 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,951 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,951
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Selma

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #434
• US rank: #8922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Selma, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,907
• Household income: $100,572
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 19% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.53%
• Current HPI: 222.8314
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,900 LERA
• 2005-06-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2005-05-08 Listed $150,470 LERA

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,951 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.