343 E 33rd St · Erie, PA 16504

$133,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1924 4,051 sqft lot Est $189k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This income producing property is perfect for a buyer looking to live in a solid home, or an investor looking to add to their portfolio. It is located on a quaint street surrounded by well-maintained homes, minutes from downtown and universities. The covered front porch will make a great spot to enjoy the upcoming warm evenings and the fully fenced back yard is a great place for a furry friend. Some cosmetic love would go a long way here, but a lot of major items are done. The numerous updates over the last two years include a new front porch roof, wood and steps, fencing, concrete work, gutters, soffits, fascia, some new drywall ceilings, painting, lighting, some plumbing and the majority

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• New front porch roof
• New drywall ceilings

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW FRONT PORCH ROOF
• NEW DRYWALL CEILINGS
• MAJORITY OF THE WIRING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $133k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $133,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Maiden Ln	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,349 (+2%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	90
242 E 32 St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+1%)	3mo	$75,201	$56	87
347 E 35th St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-11%)	2mo	$200,000	$170	75
361 E 35th St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-11%)	3mo	$181,000	$154	74
749 E 32nd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-4%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	68
3216 French St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	67
239 E 25th St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+6%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	62
211 E 39th St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-14%)	2mo	$255,000	$225	51
3729 State St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$241,000	$165	49
909 E 37th St	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,285 (-3%)	2mo	$142,000	$111	48
925 E 34th St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,399 (+6%)	3mo	$140,000	$100	44
539 E 23rd St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-14%)	1mo	$28,000	$25	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,606
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $57,314
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,799/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $589	+0% $551	+5% $513	+10% $476
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $474	+0% $551	+5% $628	+10% $705
Rate	-1.0pp $618	-0.5pp $585	base $551	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	0.53mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	0.58mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	0.86mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.11mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	1.21mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $133,000 Active
3. 2025-03-19
   soldstatus $55,000
4. 2021-08-09
   listed $53,000
5. 2017-10-02
   listed $55,000
6. 2013-02-04
   listed $82,300
7. 2003-06-30
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,799 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,799 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$2,799
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable income: $4,829
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $5,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+303.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $133,000 GEBOR
• 2025-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-09 Listed $53,000 GEBOR
• 2017-10-02 Listed $55,000 GEBOR
• 2013-02-04 Listed $82,300 GEBOR
• 2003-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,799 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.