The Kinley Plan · Spring Hill, KS 66083

$351,450

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Simple, smart, and thoughtfully designed, the Kinley is a single-story floor plan created to offer maximum function with just the right amount of space. Featuring three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home makes everyday living effortless-whether you're just starting out or looking to right-size without sacrificing style. The open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area creates a bright and connected space, perfect for casual meals, family gatherings, or quiet evenings at home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 138 days

🏗️ New construction. The $351,450 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $486,097.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $351k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#93 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Hill (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #11 of 169 in KS (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 303 students, 11% FRL); Spring Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #89 of 219 statewide, top 40%, 471 students, 24% FRL); Spring Hill High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #26 of 327 statewide, top 8%, 983 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,553 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.49%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,097
• List price: $351,450
• Delta: -27.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19002 Millview St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-1%)	2mo	$415,000	$277	81
20566 Newcastle St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	0mo	$409,946	$256	69
20515 Millview Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+10%)	2mo	$376,826	$226	67
20523 Newcastle St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+8%)	1mo	$375,493	$230	64
20524 Newcastle St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	0mo	$366,900	$269	62
19435 Lincoln St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-1%)	2mo	$339,990	$227	58
18908 Skyview Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	2mo	$455,000	$263	57
19459 Lincoln St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-1%)	3mo	$347,445	$232	57
20530 Newcastle St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-13%)	0mo	$336,611	$255	57
19716 W 196th St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$369,900	$222	51
19475 Lincoln St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-12%)	4mo	$340,690	$257	43
20209 W 194th Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-12%)	4mo	$341,040	$257	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-154,541
• Equity at exit: $72,479

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-232,025
• Equity at exit: $42,029

Cash invested: $136,107 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $406,381 ($256/sqft)
• Median days on market: 165 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 66083

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,549
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$608 /mo · $7,291/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,252

Max offer price $313,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-854	-5% $-1,022	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,358	+10% $-1,526
Rent	-10% $-1,407	-5% $-1,299	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,082	+10% $-973
Rate	-1.0pp $-946	-0.5pp $-1,067	base $-1,190	+0.5pp $-1,316	+1.0pp $-1,444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,524
• Closing costs: $14,583
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19427 Lincoln St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,265	$1.80	5d	1	0.68mi
19604 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,995	$1.48	42d	1	0.85mi
20368 W 194th Ter Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	119d	1	0.88mi
19615 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,995	$1.48	10d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $351,450

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: The Kinley plan (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1518

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $351,450 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $351,450 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $351,450 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $351,450 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $351,450 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $351,450 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $351,450 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $351,450 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $351,450 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $351,450 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $351,450 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $351,450 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $351,450 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $351,450 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $351,450 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $351,450 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $351,450 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $351,450 Active 113 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $351,450 Active 112 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $351,450 Active 111 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $351,450 Active 110 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $351,450 Active 109 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $351,450 Active 108 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $351,450 Active 107 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $351,450 Active 106 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $351,450 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $351,450 Active 104 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $351,450 Active 103 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $351,450 Active 102 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $351,450 Active 101 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $351,450 Active 100 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $351,450 Active 99 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $351,450 Active 98 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $351,450 Active 97 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $351,450 Active 96 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $351,450 Active 95 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $351,450 Active 94 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $351,450 Active 93 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $351,450 Active 92 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $351,450 Active 91 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $351,450 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $351,450 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $351,450 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $351,450 Active 87 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $351,450 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $351,450 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $351,450 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $351,450 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $351,450 Active 79 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $351,450 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,229
• − Property taxes: −$7,291
• − Insurance: −$2,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,636
• − Management: −$2,636
• − Depreciation: −$14,141
• Taxable loss: −$23,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,590–$22,770 screening

The Kinley Plan is a well-maintained single-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition. Minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wolf Creek Elementary School C- KS #131/684 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Spring Hill Middle School F KS #89/219 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Spring Hill High School F KS #26/327 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Hill
• NCES district ID: 2011850
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,172
• Composite: 40.26/100
• National rank: #3767
• State rank: #11 of 169 in KS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #5370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, KS
• County: Johnson County · 663,396 people
• City population: 13,011
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 13,011
• Household income: $116,791
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 265.6494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $351,450

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: The Kinley plan (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1518

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area