1945 Shadow Lake Dr · Midway, FL 32563

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 6,534 sqft lot Est $303k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a home I am proud to represent. A desirable and sensible floor plan, split bedroom design, beautifully maintain by the original owners. Features include recent updates to the kitchen including granite counter tops, resurfaced cabinets, all stainless appliances. The baths also have granite counter tops, tile flooring and resurfaced vanity/cabinetry. Wood laminate flooring in living areas 2016, tile in baths and carpet in bedrooms in 2017. The entire interior has been repainted in soft neutral tone. The HVAC system is a Heat Pump system installed in 2015. Enjoy the patio that overlooks a small flowing stream and a cleared green belt area. The lot is very well drained and landscaped. This is a home for you to place on your ''MUST HAVE'' list!!

Key facts

• Inviting kitchen
• Coastal retreat
• Split floor plan

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• BRIGHT INTERIOR
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• INVITING KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Shadow Lakes subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Ranch-style home; 1 story; Built in 2005
• Construction: Frame, brick and vinyl siding construction; Composite shingle roof; Built in 2005
• Exterior features: Private yard; Sprinkler system; Chain link and privacy fencing; Open patio; Waterfront on a creek (65 feet of frontage); Interior lot accessed by a paved county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating components
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Newly painted; Split bedroom layout; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-407/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Primary School (723 students, 39% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Gulf Breeze High School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B, #66 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 1,978 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $300k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,571 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,149
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5594 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+0%)	0mo	$300,000	$214	95
5566 Meadow Creek Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$223	78
1980 Crosscreek Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-8%)	1mo	$300,000	$234	77
5561 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$201	76
2078 Shadow Lake Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	1mo	$330,000	$245	75
5813 Congress Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-0%)	0mo	$336,000	$241	72
5407 Maverick Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$217	72
2026 Church St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-9%)	1mo	$255,000	$201	71
1944 Guseman Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+10%)	6mo	$310,000	$201	67
5600 Brentwater Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	1mo	$244,900	$204	58
5648 United Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-13%)	2mo	$261,000	$214	58
5764 Government Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-14%)	6mo	$282,500	$236	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,061
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,082
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $293,914

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $51	+0% $-34	+5% $-119	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-125	+0% $-34	+5% $58	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $42	base $-34	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1889 Natures Way Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,850	$1.68	25d	1	0.15mi
1712 Bay Pine Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.41mi
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	15d	1	0.51mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	25d	1	0.52mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	15d	1	0.52mi
5673 Stellarjay St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	23d	1	0.56mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	15d	1	0.72mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	23d	1	0.72mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	25d	1	0.93mi
1861 Teal Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	15d	5	0.95mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	1.09mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	1.17mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	15d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $299,900
18. 2026-05-13
    status Active
19. 2026-04-17
    listed $310,000 Active
20. 2018-11-13
    soldstatus $189,900
21. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $189,900 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    This is a home that I am proud to represent. A desirable and sensible floor plan, split bedroom design, beautifully maintained by the original owners. Features include recent updates to the kitchen including granite counter tops, resurfaced cabinetry, all stainless appliances. The baths, also have granite, tile flooring and resurfaced vanities/cabinets. Wood laminate flooring in the living areas installed in 2016. The entire interior has been repainted soft neutral tones. The HVAC system is a Heat Pump installed in 2015. Enjoy the patio that overlooks a small stream and a cleared green belt area. The lot is very well drained and landscaped. re-sodded in 2015 and is irrigated. This is a home you need to place on your "MUST HAVE" list!!

22. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $189,900 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    This is a home that I am proud to represent. A desirable and sensible floor plan, split bedroom design, beautifully maintained by the original owners. Features include recent updates to the kitchen including granite counter tops, resurfaced cabinetry, all stainless appliances. The baths, also have granite, tile flooring and resurfaced vanities/cabinets. Wood laminate flooring in the living areas installed in 2016. The entire interior has been repainted soft neutral tones. The HVAC system is a Heat Pump installed in 2015. Enjoy the patio that overlooks a small stream and a cleared green belt area. The lot is very well drained and landscaped. re-sodded in 2015 and is irrigated. This is a home you need to place on your "MUST HAVE" list!!

23. 2018-09-24
    listed $189,900 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    This is a home that I am proud to represent. A desirable and sensible floor plan, split bedroom design, beautifully maintained by the original owners. Features include recent updates to the kitchen including granite counter tops, resurfaced cabinetry, all stainless appliances. The baths, also have granite, tile flooring and resurfaced vanities/cabinets. Wood laminate flooring in the living areas installed in 2016. The entire interior has been repainted soft neutral tones. The HVAC system is a Heat Pump installed in 2015. Enjoy the patio that overlooks a small stream and a cleared green belt area. The lot is very well drained and landscaped. re-sodded in 2015 and is irrigated. This is a home you need to place on your "MUST HAVE" list!!

24. 2018-09-24
    listed $189,900 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    This is a home that I am proud to represent. A desirable and sensible floor plan, split bedroom design, beautifully maintained by the original owners. Features include recent updates to the kitchen including granite counter tops, resurfaced cabinetry, all stainless appliances. The baths, also have granite, tile flooring and resurfaced vanities/cabinets. Wood laminate flooring in the living areas installed in 2016. The entire interior has been repainted soft neutral tones. The HVAC system is a Heat Pump installed in 2015. Enjoy the patio that overlooks a small stream and a cleared green belt area. The lot is very well drained and landscaped. re-sodded in 2015 and is irrigated. This is a home you need to place on your "MUST HAVE" list!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$802/yr (+$67/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $299,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $310,000 ECAR
• 2018-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $189,900 PARMLS
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $189,900 NAMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $189,900 NAMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,688 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.