2629 US Hwy 79 W · Jacksonville, TX 75766

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1964 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on 1.59 AC on Hwy 79 near Jacksonville TX - 2 Houses - Main house has 1600 sq ft 3 spacious BRs and one bath, beautiful wood burning fireplace in den. Large open kitchen. Mother-in-law house with 2 BR & 1 bath which has its own separate address for mail if needed. All this is 2700 sq ft of living space securely fenced with large main gate. The water is supplied from a good deep well / NO WATER BILL. Detached carport style parking serving both houses, also a nice workshop in back yard. Spacious decks and plenty of shade in back ward for your enjoyment. Washer and dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey, no charge. This home offers much flexibility and potential at a great price. This a must see!

Key facts

• Deep well
• Detached carport
• Securely fenced

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE ADDRESS FOR MAIL
• SECURELY FENCED
• DEEP WELL
• DETACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($628/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.1% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 286 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,911 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,061
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-16,697
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,914/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $100	+0% $52	+5% $5	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-6	+0% $52	+5% $111	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $95	base $52	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-13
   price $169,000 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Located on 1.59 AC on Hwy 79 near Jacksonville TX - 2 Houses - Main house has 1600 sq ft 3 spacious BRs and one bath, beautiful wood burning fireplace in den. Large open kitchen. Mother-in-law house with 2 BR & 1 bath which has its own separate address for mail if needed. All this is 2700 sq ft of living space securely fenced with large main gate. The water is supplied from a good deep well / NO WATER BILL. Detached carport style parking serving both houses, also a nice workshop in back yard. Spacious decks and plenty of shade in back ward for your enjoyment. Washer and dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey, no charge. This home offers much flexibility and potential at a great price. This a must see!

2. 2026-03-12
   price $179,000 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Located on 1.59 AC on Hwy 79 near Jacksonville TX - 2 Houses - Main house has 1600 sq ft 3 spacious BRs and one bath, beautiful wood burning fireplace in den. Large open kitchen. Mother-in-law house with 2 BR & 1 bath which has its own separate address for mail if needed. All this is 2700 sq ft of living space securely fenced with large main gate. The water is supplied from a good deep well / NO WATER BILL. Detached carport style parking serving both houses, also a nice workshop in back yard. Spacious decks and plenty of shade in back ward for your enjoyment. Washer and dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey, no charge. This home offers much flexibility and potential at a great price. This a must see!

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $184,000 Active 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Located on 1.59 AC on Hwy 79 near Jacksonville TX - 2 Houses - Main house has 1600 sq ft 3 spacious BRs and one bath, beautiful wood burning fireplace in den. Large open kitchen. Mother-in-law house with 2 BR & 1 bath which has its own separate address for mail if needed. All this is 2700 sq ft of living space securely fenced with large main gate. The water is supplied from a good deep well / NO WATER BILL. Detached carport style parking serving both houses, also a nice workshop in back yard. Spacious decks and plenty of shade in back ward for your enjoyment. Washer and dryer and 2 refrigerators to convey, no charge. This home offers much flexibility and potential at a great price. This a must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,914 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,179/yr (+$98/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,914
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$536
• After-tax cash flow: $1,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #9160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,988
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $179,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $184,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,914 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.