16831 W Weymouth Rd · Surprise, AZ 85374

$295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2004 6,820 sqft lot Est $511k · 42% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME. DESIGNER TOUCHES MAKE THIS HOME SHOW LIKE MODEL. UPGRADED CARPET PAD AND TILE ENVITE YOU THROUGH THE ENTRY WAY TO VAULTED CEILINGS AND OPEN FAMILY ROOM AND KITCHEN. 42 INCH CABINETS WITH CROWN MOULDING, SMOOTH TOP RANGE AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. DONT MISS THE DEN WITH DOUBLE GLASS DOORS AND DESIGNER CIELING FANS. 2INCH BLINDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO 2 STORIES AROUND. CORNER LOT WITH NORTH SOUTH EXPOSURE. SPLIT MASTER WITH HUGE WALKIN CLOSET. LOTS OF ROOM HERE FOR ANYONE. ALARM SYSTEM PRE PAID FOR 6 MONTHS AT SELLERS COST. IN WALL PEST SYSTEM TO BOOT.

Key facts

• Breakfast bar island
• Covered patio
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR ISLAND
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with $70 monthly fee; HOA fee covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 additional open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; Block fencing; Playground access in community; Biking/walking paths in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom with full bath; Separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($574/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,713 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $511,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16818 W Tonbridge St	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,166 (0%)	5mo	$400,000	$185	88
16824 W Bristol Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,047 (-6%)	0mo	$455,500	$223	86
18250 N 167th Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (-5%)	5mo	$390,000	$189	67
16768 W Nottingham Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-10%)	6mo	$430,000	$222	64
16809 W Bradford Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,979 (-9%)	2mo	$465,000	$235	61
17692 N Pyrite Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,282 (+5%)	5mo	$685,000	$300	58
16837 W Northampton Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (-12%)	3mo	$419,900	$219	53
16846 W Halifax St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	4mo	$461,800	$243	52
16422 W Monteverde Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,282 (+5%)	4mo	$600,000	$263	49
16455 W Tres Hombres Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-12%)	4mo	$450,000	$236	47
17326 N Escalante Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,282 (+5%)	3mo	$574,200	$252	46
16495 W Monteverde Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-15%)	5mo	$464,250	$251	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,591
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,501
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,357

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $131	+0% $48	+5% $-36	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-48	+0% $48	+5% $143	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $123	base $48	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18236 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2479	$2,695	$1.09	45d	1	0.16mi
16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,850	$1.29	3d	1	0.19mi
17647 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,035	$1.14	14d	1	0.30mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	12d	1	0.47mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	45d	1	0.74mi
17181 W Gable End Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2312	$3,450	$1.49	45d	1	0.76mi
17210 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.86mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	7d	1	0.88mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	26d	1	0.95mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	19d	1	1.01mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	0d	1	1.01mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	23d	1	1.01mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	13d	1	1.11mi
17127 W Statler St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2543	$2,600	$1.02	26d	1	1.14mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,265	$1.00	3d	1	1.15mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,290	$1.02	5d	1	1.15mi
16121 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$2,695	$1.05	26d	1	1.16mi
16818 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2567	$1,895	$0.74	16d	1	1.17mi
16561 N 175th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,350	$1.04	0d	1	1.21mi
15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.23mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	45d	1	1.28mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	1.31mi
16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,195	$1.00	0d	1	1.31mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	45d	1	1.33mi
16903 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,295	$0.95	45d	1	1.35mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	45d	1	1.37mi
17774 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2263	$2,150	$0.95	7d	1	1.40mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	12d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 444-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,947 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $1,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2007-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $249,900 Public Records
• 2007-05-15 Sold (MLS) $249,900 ARMLS
• 2007-03-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $249,900 ARMLS
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $286,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-17 Sold (MLS) $286,000 ARMLS
• 2006-04-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-11-26 Listed $299,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.