15 Vly Rd · Colonie, NY 12205

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 10,018 sqft lot Est $237k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold before Print

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Four off-street paved parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 150 amp electric service; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Listed as fixer condition; Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front and covered rear porch; Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Yard with wood and chain-link fencing and gated access; On-site shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Wood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling paddle fan; Double-pane windows; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in basement); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-137/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Colonie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#37 in NY, #572 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living D.
• South Colonie Central School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #215 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saddlewood Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 417 students, 33% FRL); Colonie Central High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,538 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 19% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Colonie Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,295 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,544
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Birch Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	672 (-4%)	10mo	$210,000	$313	62
45 Fuller Ter	0.72mi	2/1.0	759 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$336	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,554
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,849
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12205

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,908/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $212,984

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 17-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $215,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,908 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,271 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,908
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Colonie Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627210
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,499
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1527
• State rank: #215 of 590 in NY

Livability — Colonie

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #572

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colonie, NY
• County: Albany County · 196,626 people
• City population: 25,912
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,838
• Household income: $91,020
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.10%
• Current HPI: 302.9752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $215,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,908 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.