15772 SW 59th Avenue Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$288,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land · 176 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER – Bring Your Offer! Stunning New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location – Move-In Ready! Welcome to this beautifully designed brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering modern comfort, functionality, and style. Featuring an open-concept layout, this home boasts a spacious living area and dining space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen shines with solid wood cabinetry, stone countertops, and included appliances, delivering both elegance and practicality. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms include built-in closets for ample storage. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car garage and a prime location

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Prime ocala location
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PRIME OCALA LOCATION
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• ELEGANT STONE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-696/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,513 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,546
• Equity at exit: $42,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,919
• Equity at exit: $24,901

Cash invested: $80,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,129

Max offer price $277,748

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $23	+0% $-58	+5% $-140	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-139	+0% $-58	+5% $23	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $15	base $-58	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,000
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	15d	1	0.20mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	23d	1	0.29mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	15d	1	0.56mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	0.57mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	15d	1	0.57mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	15d	1	0.65mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	23d	1	0.67mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.69mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	0.72mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	0.73mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.77mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	15d	1	0.79mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	23d	1	0.79mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	15d	1	0.85mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.91mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	15d	1	0.92mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.92mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.98mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	15d	1	1.08mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	15d	1	1.10mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	1.19mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	23d	1	1.21mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	23d	1	1.27mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	15d	1	1.27mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	15d	1	1.29mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	15d	1	1.31mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	1.39mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	15d	1	1.39mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.40mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	15d	1	1.40mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	23d	1	1.42mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	15d	1	1.43mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $288,000
3. 2026-03-25
   price $291,000
4. 2026-01-29
   price $292,000
5. 2026-01-22
   price $293,000
6. 2026-01-10
   price $296,000
7. 2025-11-06
   price $299,000
8. 2025-10-22
   listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,775/yr (+$148/mo · 288.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$5,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $288,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $291,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $292,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $293,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $296,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +86.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.