8323 Wilcrest Dr · Houston, TX 77072

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Land · 5 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath!! Great location close to Beltway 8 and Westpark tollway. Very well maintained with ceramic tile downstaris and a new carpet upstairs, fesh paint.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1978
• Construction: Living area approximately 888
• Exterior features: Located in the Alief subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.02%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-4,471
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-6,799
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77072

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10615 Beechnut St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$972	$1.03	2d	16	0.09mi
8323 Cinnamon Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,000	$1.07	12d	1	0.19mi
10555 Spice Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$985	$1.05	1d	16	0.20mi
8310 S Course Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$965	$1.05	43d	1	0.26mi
10522 Beechnut St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1015	$1,024	$1.01	2d	14	0.32mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$809	$1.15	11d	1	0.36mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 10236 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$859	$1.22	12d	1	0.36mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 10266 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$758	$1.08	12d	1	0.36mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$769	$1.09	7d	1	0.36mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 10289 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$766	$1.09	2d	1	0.36mi
10215 Beechnut St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$854	$1.21	12d	1	0.38mi
8039 Boone Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	938	$1,262	$1.35	12d	18	0.39mi
8600 S Course Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	706	$1,218	$1.72	1d	31	0.45mi
8606 S Course Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	913	$1,050	$1.15	43d	1	0.51mi
10027 Spice Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,180	$1.08	7d	12	0.55mi
9255 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,049	$1.40	43d	1	0.67mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	619	$779	$1.26	43d	1	0.80mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,054	$1.05	24d	1	0.80mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	619	$779	$1.26	22d	1	0.80mi
9475 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,284	$1.77	5d	18	0.85mi
9430 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	719	$842	$1.17	12d	1	0.92mi
9445 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,104	$1.54	1d	21	0.96mi
10000 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,015	$1.51	10d	1	1.05mi
9501 Beechnut St Unit 216 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$775	$1.17	22d	1	1.07mi
9501 Beechnut St Unit 811 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,010	$1.19	22d	1	1.07mi
9501 Beechnut St Unit 803 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,010	$1.19	24d	1	1.07mi
9501 Beechnut St Unit 707 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$775	$1.17	24d	1	1.07mi
9901 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$992	$1.16	1d	13	1.08mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$950	$1.49	43d	31	1.14mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$1,093	$1.54	3d	31	1.14mi
9303 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,045	$1.32	43d	42	1.15mi
9797 Leawood Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,175	$1.07	43d	2	1.18mi
8181 Colony St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	796	$940	$1.18	7d	1	1.20mi
10225 Bissonnet St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	992	$1,480	$1.49	1d	49	1.21mi
9700 Leawood Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,400	$1.80	3d	5	1.21mi
9700 Leawood Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,400	$1.80	43d	7	1.21mi
8181 Colony Dr Unit 8255 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$692	$1.15	2d	1	1.21mi
8181 Colony Dr Unit 8232 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$684	$1.14	12d	1	1.21mi
8181 Colony Dr Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$695	$1.15	7d	1	1.21mi
8181 Colony Dr Unit 8255 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$730	$1.21	12d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 122-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $49,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$5,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$184
• After-tax cash flow: $1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,108
• Household income: $51,070
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3500.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 24% Black 23% Two or more races 19% White 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 40% Vietnamese 16% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 362.1985
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $49,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-01-16 Rental Removed $989 HARMLS
• 2024-10-20 Price Changed $989 HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Rental Removed $600 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-21 Rental Removed $600 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $600 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-19 Listed for Rent $600 SHOWMOJO
• 2014-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-04-01 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 2013-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-03-27 Listed $33,000 HARMLS
• 2012-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-03-16 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-02 Listed $11,000 HARMLS
• 2007-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-15 Listed $34,000 HARMLS
• 2006-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-01 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 2004-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-10-20 Listed $29,900 HARMLS
• 2004-09-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-06-07 Listed $36,000 HARMLS
• 2004-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-04-07 Listed $650 HARMLS
• 2004-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-01-13 Listed $44,900 HARMLS