151 Smith St · Danville, VA 24541

$74,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1955 6,608 sqft lot $82/sqft · 8% below area Est $81k · 8% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income. The property features a heat pump system for efficient heating and cooling. Whether you're a first time investor or expanding your portfolio, this property offers reliable cash flow and long term potential. Sold-As-IS Where-is no warranties

Key facts

• Heat pump system
• 6,608 sq ft lot
• Built 1955

Tags

• HEAT PUMP SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.33%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,530
• List price: $74,000
• Delta: -8.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 Rison St	0.32mi	2/1.0	934 (+3%)	9mo	$104,000	$111	72
818 Stokes St	0.51mi	2/1.0	986 (+9%)	0mo	$139,000	$141	61
716 Temple Ave	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	915 (+1%)	1mo	$74,400	$81	59
312 Mabin St	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,029 (+14%)	22mo	$32,000	$31	52
224 Hughes St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-2%)	16mo	$60,000	$68	51
315 Hughes St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-2%)	15mo	$113,900	$128	49
1238 Paxton St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+13%)	12mo	$112,900	$110	49
104 Paul St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (+1%)	17mo	$79,900	$88	48
867 Lee St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	828 (-8%)	22mo	$40,000	$48	46
885 Lee St	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-12%)	22mo	$20,000	$25	42
730 Temple Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,022 (+13%)	8mo	$33,000	$32	40
313 Kemper Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,006 (+11%)	11mo	$205,000	$204	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $15,838
• Equity at exit: $11,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $49,544
• Equity at exit: $6,398

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
345 Flint St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,200	$1.35	44d	1	0.27mi
219 Montague St Danville, VA	1.0	1.0	747	$850	$1.14	44d	1	0.63mi
317 Dudley St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$914	$1.09	21d	1	0.67mi
128 Charles St Unit 5 Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	1	0.84mi
245 College Park Dr Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	782	$775	$0.99	21d	1	0.86mi
378 Juless St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$775	$0.99	44d	1	0.94mi
380 Juless St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$775	$0.99	44d	1	0.94mi
111 Willoughby Pl Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	21d	1	0.98mi
712 Edwin Ct Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	969	$700	$0.72	44d	1	1.06mi
732 Hughes St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	1.10mi
721 Chatham Ave Unit A Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	13d	1	1.11mi
315 Lynn St Apt 404 Danville, VA	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,500	$1.43	44d	1	1.15mi
501 Craghead St Danville, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	44d	1	1.19mi
442 Main St Unit 306 Danville, VA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,200	$1.82	44d	1	1.20mi
442 Main St Unit 207 Danville, VA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	44d	1	1.20mi
601 Bridge St Unit 212 Danville, VA	1.0	1.0	1046	$1,300	$1.24	21d	1	1.28mi
107 Baltimore Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$914	$1.01	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $74,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,000 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,000 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,000 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $74,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-03-10
   price $74,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income. The property features a heat pump system for efficient heating and cooling. Whether you're a first time investor or expanding your portfolio, this property offers reliable cash flow and long term potential. Sold-As-IS Where-is no warranties

7. 2025-10-27
   price $75,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income. The property features a heat pump system for efficient heating and cooling. Whether you're a first time investor or expanding your portfolio, this property offers reliable cash flow and long term potential. Sold-As-IS Where-is no warranties

8. 2025-09-26
   listed $80,000 Active 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income. The property features a heat pump system for efficient heating and cooling. Whether you're a first time investor or expanding your portfolio, this property offers reliable cash flow and long term potential. Sold-As-IS Where-is no warranties

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 204.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $4,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $4,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $74,000 DRRAR
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $75,000 DRRAR
• 2025-09-26 Listed $80,000 DRRAR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.