9460 Lake Serena Dr · Boca Raton, FL 33496

$925,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1994 8,250 sqft lot $200/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful home located at 9460 Lake Serena Dr, Boca Raton, FL. This spacious maintained home offers a great layout with 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, a modern kitchen with high-end finishes, and a welcoming living area. Enjoy the serene outdoor space, complete with a enclosed patio and big private pool. Situated in a desirable community, this property provides convenient access to local amenities, shopping, and dining options. Close to A rated Boca schools. A must-see gem!

Key facts

• Private pool
• Convenient access
• Desirable community

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• PRIVATE POOL
• DESIRABLE COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, jogging path, picnic area and sidewalks; Internet included in association; HOA fee approximately $200 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage with garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (three total); One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (48.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $493k (46.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $473k (48.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines Elementary School (math 62% / reading 69%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 1,015 students, 25% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,934/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $92k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$159k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($814k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $508k; list at $925k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $472,856 (48.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.86%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $337,477
• Equity at exit: $833,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $1,115,523
• Equity at exit: $1,797,072

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33496

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$1,021 /mo · $12,249/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,036
• Net cashflow: $-2,559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,173

Max offer price $472,856

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,036	-5% $-2,298	+0% $-2,559	+5% $-2,821	+10% $-3,083
Rent	-10% $-2,949	-5% $-2,754	+0% $-2,559	+5% $-2,365	+10% $-2,170
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,094	-0.5pp $-2,324	base $-2,559	+0.5pp $-2,799	+1.0pp $-3,043

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9505 Aegean Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2133	$4,200	$1.97	10d	1	0.40mi
9067 Long Lake Palm Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.5	3014	$6,875	$2.28	26d	1	0.72mi
19323 Carolina Cir Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	2301	$3,955	$1.72	1d	1	0.88mi
19323 Carolina Cir Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	2300	$4,150	$1.80	15d	1	0.88mi
17358 Santaluce Mnr Boca Raton, FL	5.0	6.5	3969	$17,000	$4.28	26d	1	1.25mi
10902 Tamoron Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	2673	$4,800	$1.80	26d	1	1.28mi
9093 Chauvet Way Boca Raton, FL	5.0	5.5	3956	$17,950	$4.54	26d	1	1.31mi
18474 Old Princeton Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2330	$4,800	$2.06	16d	1	1.36mi
17166 Ludovica Ln Boca Raton, FL	5.0	5.5	3956	$22,000	$5.56	26d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $925,000 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $925,000 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $925,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $925,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $925,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $925,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $925,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $925,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $925,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $925,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $925,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $925,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $925,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2025-11-05
    listed $925,000 Active
15. 2024-01-28
    historical $5,950
16. 2024-01-11
    price $5,950
17. 2024-01-09
    listed $6,200
18. 2024-01-05
    historical $6,200
19. 2024-01-01
    price $6,200
20. 2023-12-20
    price $6,000
21. 2023-12-13
    historical
22. 2023-12-03
    listed $6,250
23. 2023-10-30
    listed $949,900 Active
24. 2022-12-06
    historical
25. 2022-11-08
    listed $899,000 Active
26. 2022-09-27
    historical
27. 2022-08-22
    price $949,000
28. 2022-07-29
    listed $972,900 Active
29. 2019-10-23
    soldstatus $507,500
30. 2019-10-18
    soldstatus $507,500 Closed
31. 2019-09-23
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2019-08-24
    status Active
33. 2019-08-18
    historical Active Under Contract
34. 2019-08-08
    listed $535,000 Active
35. 2018-10-19
    historical
36. 2018-10-11
    listed $549,000 Active
37. 2015-09-23
    soldstatus $460,000
38. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus $460,000 Closed
39. 2015-08-25
    status Pending
40. 2015-08-04
    historical Contingent
41. 2015-07-23
    price $464,900
42. 2015-07-06
    price $479,000
43. 2015-06-10
    listed $499,000 Active
44. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus $440,000
45. 2003-08-20
    soldstatus $370,000
46. 2003-08-20
    soldstatus $370,000
47. 2003-08-11
    soldstatus $370,000
48. 2003-07-12
    historical
49. 2003-06-26
    listed $379,900
50. 1995-03-09
    soldstatus $218,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,249 · $1,021/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,249 · $1,021/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$12,249
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,736
• − Management: −$4,736
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable loss: −$48,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,579
• Household income: $114,885
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 13% Romanian 9% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.48%
• Current HPI: 313.9058
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+324.3% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Listed $925,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-01-28 Rental Removed $5,950 Avail
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed $5,950 Avail
• 2024-01-09 Listed for Rent $6,200 Avail
• 2024-01-05 Rental Removed $6,200 Avail
• 2024-01-01 Price Changed $6,200 Avail
• 2023-12-20 Price Changed $6,000 Avail
• 2023-12-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-12-03 Listed for Rent $6,250 Avail
• 2023-10-30 Listed $949,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-12-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $899,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-09-27 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-22 Price Changed $949,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-07-29 Listed $972,900 Beaches MLS
• 2019-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $507,500 Public Records
• 2019-10-18 Sold (MLS) $507,500 Beaches MLS
• 2019-09-23 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-08-24 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2019-08-18 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-08-08 Listed $535,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-10-19 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2018-10-11 Listed $549,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-03 Sold (MLS) $460,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-08-25 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2015-08-04 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2015-07-23 Price Changed $464,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-07-06 Price Changed $479,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-06-10 Listed $499,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-11 Sold (MLS) $370,000 Beaches MLS
• 2003-07-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2003-06-26 Listed $379,900 Beaches MLS
• 1995-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,249 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.