13701 Tucker Hedge Pass · Elgin, TX 78621

$288,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 5,270 sqft lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $302k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

Key facts

• Central island
• 1 story
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• 1 STORY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• BREAKFAST AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,587 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,063
• List price: $288,990
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $140,736
• Equity at exit: $260,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $428,023
• Equity at exit: $561,444

Cash invested: $80,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,213/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $242,323

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,248
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.23mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.38mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.55mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.66mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.70mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.73mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.73mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.73mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.81mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.82mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.88mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.91mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.93mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.96mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.98mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.99mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.02mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.06mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	1.06mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.11mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.12mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	1.12mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	1.20mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	1.26mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.28mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.30mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	1.30mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.31mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.34mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	1.36mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	1.40mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,990 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,990 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,990 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,990 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,990 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,990 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $288,990 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,990 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $314,999 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

15. 2026-05-15
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

16. 2026-05-15
    historical 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

17. 2026-05-07
    price $314,999 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    New Construction | 1-Story | 1,470 Sq Ft | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Available NOW | The Kenzo is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering 1,470 square feet of functional living space with an open-concept layout that supports everyday comfort and ease. The foyer leads to two secondary bedrooms with closets that share a well-appointed full bathroom, creating a practical setup for shared living. Continuing down the hall, you’ll find access to the 2-car garage before the home opens into the kitchen featuring a central island and walk-in pantry. The kitchen flows into the breakfast area, with the utility room conveniently located nearby, keeping daily routines within reach. Just beyond, the spacious family room offers a comfortable place to gather, with natural light enhancing the open feel. The primary bedroom is tucked off the family room and features an ensuite bath with French doors, dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet, providing a private and relaxing retreat. With its efficient layout, open living spaces, and ample storage throughout, the Kenzo blends style and practicality in a way that’s easy to live in. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

18. 2026-04-17
    price $299,999 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

19. 2026-04-16
    price $299,999 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    New Construction | 1-Story | 1,470 Sq Ft | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Available NOW | The Kenzo is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering 1,470 square feet of functional living space with an open-concept layout that supports everyday comfort and ease. The foyer leads to two secondary bedrooms with closets that share a well-appointed full bathroom, creating a practical setup for shared living. Continuing down the hall, you’ll find access to the 2-car garage before the home opens into the kitchen featuring a central island and walk-in pantry. The kitchen flows into the breakfast area, with the utility room conveniently located nearby, keeping daily routines within reach. Just beyond, the spacious family room offers a comfortable place to gather, with natural light enhancing the open feel. The primary bedroom is tucked off the family room and features an ensuite bath with French doors, dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet, providing a private and relaxing retreat. With its efficient layout, open living spaces, and ample storage throughout, the Kenzo blends style and practicality in a way that’s easy to live in. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

20. 2026-04-14
    price $310,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

21. 2026-04-13
    price $310,000 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    New Construction | 1-Story | 1,470 Sq Ft | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Available NOW | The Kenzo is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering 1,470 square feet of functional living space with an open-concept layout that supports everyday comfort and ease. The foyer leads to two secondary bedrooms with closets that share a well-appointed full bathroom, creating a practical setup for shared living. Continuing down the hall, you’ll find access to the 2-car garage before the home opens into the kitchen featuring a central island and walk-in pantry. The kitchen flows into the breakfast area, with the utility room conveniently located nearby, keeping daily routines within reach. Just beyond, the spacious family room offers a comfortable place to gather, with natural light enhancing the open feel. The primary bedroom is tucked off the family room and features an ensuite bath with French doors, dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet, providing a private and relaxing retreat. With its efficient layout, open living spaces, and ample storage throughout, the Kenzo blends style and practicality in a way that’s easy to live in. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

22. 2026-03-30
    listed $299,999 Active 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    New Construction | 1-Story | 1,470 Sq Ft | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Available NOW | The Kenzo is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering 1,470 square feet of functional living space with an open-concept layout that supports everyday comfort and ease. The foyer leads to two secondary bedrooms with closets that share a well-appointed full bathroom, creating a practical setup for shared living. Continuing down the hall, you’ll find access to the 2-car garage before the home opens into the kitchen featuring a central island and walk-in pantry. The kitchen flows into the breakfast area, with the utility room conveniently located nearby, keeping daily routines within reach. Just beyond, the spacious family room offers a comfortable place to gather, with natural light enhancing the open feel. The primary bedroom is tucked off the family room and features an ensuite bath with French doors, dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet, providing a private and relaxing retreat. With its efficient layout, open living spaces, and ample storage throughout, the Kenzo blends style and practicality in a way that’s easy to live in. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

23. 2026-02-14
    price $299,999 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

24. 2026-02-05
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

25. 2026-02-04
    historical 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

26. 2026-01-16
    listed $309,190 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    The Maddy is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,567 sq. ft. , 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a versatile flex room, and a 2-car garage. With open-concept living, soaring ceilings, and thoughtful touches throughout, the Maddy strikes the perfect balance between comfort and sophistication.

27. 2024-09-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,213 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,289 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,075/yr (+$340/mo · 335.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,213
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$8,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $314,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $299,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $310,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $310,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $299,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Listed $309,190 Zillow
• 2024-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+120.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,213 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.