319 Holly Ln · Brandywine Bay, NC 28570

$699,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1970 0.39 ac lot $50/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon! Location, Location, Location! Rare opportunity to own a waterfront property in the highly desirable Sound View community. This charming brick home offers two bedrooms, two full baths, and a versatile flex room, making it ideal as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or investment property. Situated at the end of the canal on a bulkheaded waterfront lot, this property offers added privacy and a peaceful setting. The private dock and boat lift provide easy access to the water, making it a true boater's dream. Enjoy the benefits of waterfront living in a quiet neighborhood with access to a community boat ramp. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace, a l

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $700k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,205/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $699,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.44%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,236
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Holly Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,425 (-12%)	23mo	$755,000	$530	58
105 Sandpiper Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,571 (-3%)	4mo	$405,000	$258	57
120 Bogue Sound Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,412 (-12%)	14mo	$390,000	$276	57
115 Gull Harbor Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (+0%)	17mo	$375,000	$232	48
114 Gull Harbor Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (-5%)	17mo	$421,000	$274	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $88,999
• Equity at exit: $104,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $338,650
• Equity at exit: $60,515

Cash invested: $195,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,670
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$875 /mo · $10,498/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,143
• Net cashflow: $3,175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,186

Max offer price $699,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,659	-5% $3,417	+0% $3,175	+5% $2,933	+10% $2,691
Rent	-10% $2,369	-5% $2,772	+0% $3,175	+5% $3,578	+10% $3,981
Rate	-1.0pp $3,528	-0.5pp $3,353	base $3,175	+0.5pp $2,994	+1.0pp $2,809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,975
• Closing costs: $20,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $699,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $122,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,205
• − Property taxes: −$10,498
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,797
• − Management: −$9,797
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$20,361
• Taxable income: $28,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,889
• After-tax cash flow: $31,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Brandywine Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B