185 Grogan Rd · Oxford, AL 36201

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1951 2.50 ac lot $42/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SPACIOUSE FIXER UPER ON 2.5 ACERS! GREAT POTENTIAL!

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on approximately 2.5 acres
• Financial info: Garbage fee: $30 monthly; Down payment assistance available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet availability unknown
• Home design: Single-family property; Existing construction
• Construction: Concrete/block and wood siding construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Barn

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric cooktop; Electric stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level); Two additional bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Separate shower; Garden tub; Tub/shower combo; Linen closet
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: 9 ft. plus ceilings; French doors; Textured walls; Handyman special
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in AL, #3,446 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Oxford City (urban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #22 of 129 in AL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coldwater Elementary School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 398 students, 67% FRL); Oxford High School (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,288 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.56%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -57.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
185 Grogan Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,366 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$36	97
11 Willow Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,347 (-1%)	2mo	$274,505	$117	66
377 Carterton Hts	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,016 (-15%)	8mo	$312,000	$155	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,935
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $35,890
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36201

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $432	-5% $398	+0% $363	+5% $328	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $310	+0% $363	+5% $416	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $388	base $363	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-04-26
    listed $100,000 Active 51-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,281
• − Management: −$1,281
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oxford City
• NCES district ID: 0102635
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 35.11/100
• National rank: #5017
• State rank: #22 of 129 in AL

Livability — Oxford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3446

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oxford, AL
• City population: 18,919
• Population (ZIP): 17,406

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,765 people
• By 2030: 105,708 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 96,192 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 86,413 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 63,467 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 44,704 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 46% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 27.2% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.5pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+31.9 2008: R+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.92%
• Current HPI: 59.1512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-26 Listed $100,000 Greater Alabama MLS