634 Margaret Dr · Nesbitt, TX 75670

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1982 2.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PERFECT STARTER HOME/ INVESTMENT PROPERTY!!!! SECLUDED 3BR/2BA ON 2.17 ACRES. LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH. COVERED CARPORT IN REAR, AND STORAGE BUILDINGS.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered carport
• Storage buildings

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,560 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.08%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $7,287
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $35,500
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75670

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $383	+0% $356	+5% $330	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $309	+0% $356	+5% $404	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $381	base $356	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $95,000 Active 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    PERFECT STARTER HOME/ INVESTMENT PROPERTY!!!! SECLUDED 3BR/2BA ON 2.17 ACRES. LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH. COVERED CARPORT IN REAR, AND STORAGE BUILDINGS.

18. 2001-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $712 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$695
• After-tax cash flow: $3,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nesbitt

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1560
• US rank: #26592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nesbitt, TX
• County: Harrison County · 18,670 people
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,670
• Household income: $42,386
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.33%
• Current HPI: 100.3741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $95,000 LAAR
• 2001-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $712 · +93.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.