121 Fairway Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1986 0.70 ac lot $150/sqft · 10% below area Est $403k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This isn't your typical golf course home. With bold contemporary architecture and a setting overlooking the 7th hole of LVCC, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath retreat offers a rare blend of design, comfort, and lifestyle. Expansive walls of glass fill the home with natural light and create a seamless connection to the outdoors, while the open-concept layout is ideal for both quiet mornings and entertaining friends. Warm oak flooring, a wood-burning fireplace, and an airy lofted office space add character and functionality, while the private primary suite features a unique glass-block Jacuzzi room that feels like your own personal wellness escape. Located in the amenity-rich Hemlock community, life he

Key facts

• Golf course home
• Open-concept layout
• 0.7 acre lot

Tags

• GOLF COURSE HOME
• CONTEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE
• OVERLOOKING THE 7TH HOLE
• EXPANSIVE WALLS OF GLASS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $2,995 (approximately $249.58/month)

Exterior

• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; On golf course; Paved road access; Community features: gated community, clubhouse, tennis courts, park, lake, golf, fitness center, pool, fishing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Has view
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,491 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,360
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Fairway Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,783 (+5%)	3mo	$375,000	$135	75
404 Canoe Brook Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0	2,430 (-9%)	1mo	$315,000	$130	68
137 Hillcrest Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,480 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$145	52
205 Waterview Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0	2,880 (+8%)	9mo	$395,000	$137	51
808 Tanager Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,500 (-6%)	5mo	$415,000	$166	50
112 Falling Brook Way	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (-10%)	14mo	$415,000	$173	40
104 Heron Bay	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,296 (-14%)	5mo	$185,000	$81	40
804 E Whippletree Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,362 (-11%)	21mo	$460,000	$195	38
108 Falling Brook Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,964 (+11%)	23mo	$1,177,500	$397	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $214,688
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $634,856
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$494 /mo · $5,930/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$786
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,801

Max offer price $391,165

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	1d	1	0.23mi
142 Eisenhower Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2764	$5,000	$1.81	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $399,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $399,000 Pending 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $399,000 Active 1189-char remark
15. 2025-09-09
    price $399,900
16. 2025-06-10
    price $425,000
17. 2024-12-09
    listed $495,000 Active
18. 2024-05-27
    price $550,000
19. 2024-05-08
    listed $650,000 Active
20. 2005-09-09
    soldstatus $440,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,930 · $494/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,117 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,930
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,595
• − Management: −$3,595
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $1,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-06-11 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $399,000 PWMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $399,900 PWMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2024-12-09 Listed $495,000 PWMLS
• 2024-05-27 Price Changed $550,000 PWMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $650,000 PWMLS
• 2005-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,930 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.