Triplex
36-38 N Poplar St · Elizabethtown, PA
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 9.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 6 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Rent growth +4.1/5.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$335,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
Key facts
- 8,712 sq ft lot
- Built 1920
- Listed 12 days
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Fee simple ownership
Exterior
- Parking: Off-street parking
- Utilities: Natural gas service; Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Detached structure; 3 total units; Above-grade finished living area reported as 4,020 sq ft
- Construction: Brick and masonry construction; Stone foundation
- Exterior features: Public water and public sewer; Off-street parking
Interior
- Bedrooms: One 2-bedroom unit; Two 3-bedroom units
- Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Natural gas heating and hot water
- Interior features: Basement with poured concrete
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $335k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $465/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $335k).
- Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.2% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
- Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: East High Street El Sch (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 481 students, 46% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Ms (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #283 of 512 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 40% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $5,295/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $94k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $160k; list at $335k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.58% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.82%
- Cash-on-cash
- 23.32%
- DSCR
- 2.04
- GRM
- 5.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $460,935
- List price
- $335,000
- Delta
- -27.32%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 8 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144-146 N Market St | 0.16mi | 7/5.0 | 3,984 (-1%) | 15mo | $580,000 | $146 | 71 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 13.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.58×
- Total profit
- $54,433
- Equity at exit
- $49,950
- IRR
- 25.5%
- Equity multiple
- 3.66×
- Total profit
- $249,075
- Equity at exit
- $28,965
Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17022
- Home prices YoY
- -29.0%
- Rents YoY
- 6.5%
- Active inventory
- 203
- Price-to-rent
- 15.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $5,295 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,757
- Tax from tax record
- −$464 /mo · $5,566/yr
- Insurance
- −$140
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$1,112
- Net cashflow
- $1,396
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,586 | -5% $1,491 | +0% $1,396 | +5% $1,302 | +10% $1,207 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $978 | -5% $1,187 | +0% $1,396 | +5% $1,605 | +10% $1,815 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,565 | -0.5pp $1,482 | base $1,396 | +0.5pp $1,310 | +1.0pp $1,221 |
3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3× units | 3 | 1 | $5,295 |
| #1 | 3 | 1 | $1,765 |
| #2 | 3 | 1 | $1,765 |
| #3 | 3 | 1 | $1,765 |
| Total (3 units) | $5,295 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $83,750
- Closing costs
- $10,050
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-05-14$335,000 Active 757-char remark
-
2026-05-09historical $335,000 757-char remark
-
2017-02-03soldstatus $159,900
-
2017-01-27historical
Show marketing remark (97 chars)
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
-
2017-01-27soldstatus $159,900
Show marketing remark (97 chars)
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
-
2016-12-02historical
Show marketing remark (97 chars)
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
-
2016-11-21$169,900
Show marketing remark (97 chars)
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
-
2016-11-21$169,900
Show marketing remark (97 chars)
Ample parking in rear of building. 1 Unit is currently being renovated with new carpet and paint!
-
2010-09-08historical
-
2009-09-08$210,000
-
2006-07-14soldstatus $220,000
-
2006-06-03historical
-
2006-05-20$224,990
-
2005-06-30historical
-
2005-06-23soldstatus $191,000
-
2005-06-21soldstatus $191,000
-
2005-04-13historical
-
2005-04-06$189,900
-
2005-04-06$191,000
-
1998-02-09soldstatus $119,900
-
1998-02-09soldstatus $119,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,566 · $464/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,566 · $464/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $63,540
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,765
- − Property taxes
- −$5,566
- − Insurance
- −$6,794
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$5,083
- − Management
- −$5,083
- − Depreciation
- −$9,745
- Taxable income
- $12,504
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,001
- After-tax cash flow
- $13,755/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Elizabethtown Area SD
- NCES district ID
- 4209120
- Math proficiency
- 46% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 62% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $59,380
- Composite
- 46.94/100
- National rank
- #2361
- State rank
- #123 of 539 in PA
Livability — Elizabethtown
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #201
- US rank
- #1759
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Elizabethtown, PA
- County
- Lancaster County · 390,309 people
- City population
- 31,908
- Metro
- Lancaster, PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 31,908
- Household income
- $86,767
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1404.0
Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 561,011 people
- By 2030
- 570,969 · +1.8%
- By 2040
- 585,929 · +4.4%
- By 2050
- 591,056 · +5.4%
- By 2075
- 594,747 · +6.0%
- By 2100
- 558,850 · -0.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (89%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster
- 2024 margin
- R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -108.73%
- Current HPI
- 266.3184
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 6.52%
- Metro
- Lancaster, PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
+179.4% since first listed22 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-05-14 Listed $335,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-05-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
- 2017-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
- 2017-01-27 Sold (MLS) $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2017-01-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-12-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-11-21 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-11-21 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2010-09-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2009-09-08 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2006-07-14 Sold (MLS) $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2006-06-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2006-05-20 Listed $224,990 BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-06-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $191,000 Public Records
- 2005-06-21 Sold (MLS) $191,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-04-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-04-06 Listed $191,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-04-06 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 1998-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
- 1998-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.3%/yrLatest (2026): $5,566 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…