1158 Escorpion Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2021 0.77 ac lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $272k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Come tour this1589sq ft. Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in tranquil and relaxing Rio Rico. As you step inside you immediately notice the vaulted ceilings in the living room. There are granite countertops all throughout the home. You will see the amazing lay out. Another unique fact is that as you wake up you can enjoy the breathtaking mountain view from your primary bedroom window; dining area; porch; and your back yard! This home lays on 0.77 of an acre and offers so much potential all around. Call to schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Huge lot
• Usable land
• 0.77 acre lot

Tags

• CUSTOM STAND UP SHOWERS
• HUGE LOT
• USABLE LAND
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAINS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SCC - R-2
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built with stucco finish
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Hillside lot; North/South exposure; Chip-and-seal road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings and high ceilings; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,070
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: 5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1122 Camafeo Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-0%)	7mo	$285,000	$180	85
1112 Paseo Espuelas	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+0%)	3mo	$270,000	$169	78
1176 Calle Carmelita	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+3%)	13mo	$330,000	$201	72
1180 Olla Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,555 (-2%)	3mo	$335,000	$215	67
97 Circulo Penjamo	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+2%)	3mo	$290,000	$178	63
254 Estribo Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+2%)	9mo	$323,000	$200	62
1153 Escorpion Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-15%)	11mo	$235,000	$174	60
1065 Brazo Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+4%)	6mo	$275,000	$166	54
106 Back Nine Ter	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (+2%)	14mo	$310,000	$191	53
169 Calle Palenque	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-14%)	5mo	$219,500	$160	52
1065 Pelo Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+8%)	8mo	$240,000	$140	46
1081 Paseo Freno	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-11%)	16mo	$220,000	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $120,385
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $371,007
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,344/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $201,351

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-258	+0% $-331	+5% $-405	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-398	+0% $-331	+5% $-265	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-265	base $-331	+0.5pp $-399	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $259,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $287,900 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-04-13
   status Active 541-char remark
8. 2026-03-29
   status Pending 541-char remark
9. 2026-02-01
   price $287,900 541-char remark
10. 2026-01-07
    price $288,900 541-char remark
11. 2025-09-13
    listed $299,900 Active 541-char remark
12. 2025-09-01
    historical
13. 2025-09-01
    historical
14. 2025-06-21
    price $299,700
15. 2025-06-21
    price $299,700
16. 2025-04-05
    price $299,800
17. 2024-10-26
    price $299,900
18. 2024-10-25
    price $299,900
19. 2024-09-26
    listed $305,000 Active
20. 2024-09-20
    listed $305,000 Active
21. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus $275,000
22. 2020-07-21
    soldstatus $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,344
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$8,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4625.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $259,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-29 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $287,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $288,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-13 Listed $299,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $299,700 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $299,700 ARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $299,800 ARMLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $299,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $305,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,344 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.