3903 Morgan Horse Way · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$141,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1994 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPROTUNITY! This 3 bedroom/ 2 bathroom home has FRESH PAINT, NEW BATHROOM & NEW TILE FLOORS. Sitting on almost ONE acre of land with NO HOA!!! Located in Lake Wales close by major highways, dining and shopping. CALL TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING. THIS ONE WONT LAST!!!

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• Detached shed
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.99 acre lot (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Other; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Stilt/on piling foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $141k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,885 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,894
• Equity at exit: $21,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $23,309
• Equity at exit: $12,191

Cash invested: $39,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,575/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $141,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,250
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2694 Chuck Wagon Way Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	14d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $141,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $141,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $141,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $141,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$2,575
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable income: $1,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $3,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1558.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $141,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-07 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,575 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.