78 Shadom Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$1,950,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,178 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1987 0.89 ac lot Est $2746k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

At the end of a private driveway, set back from the road and surrounded by trees on nearly a full acre, this modern three-story home offers rare privacy minutes from the village and beaches. The grounds center on a large 20x50 ft heated pool with a diving-depth deep end, wrapped by an IPE deck, with a pergola, and a barbecue area. The second floor includes a wrap-around deck, and with a third-floor balcony, there is plenty of outdoor space. Inside: sliding glass doors for that outside-in feel, hardwood floors, and a Danish wood-burning stove for cozy winter nights. The kitchen was rebuilt around a central island with an induction cooktop. Mini-split systems handle year-round heating and coo

Key facts

• Ipe deck
• Barbecue area
• Private driveway

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• HEATED POOL
• IPE DECK
• BARBECUE AREA
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• THIRD-FLOOR BALCONY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 4 vehicles; Driveway access; Off-street parking; Private parking; Shared driveway; Unpaved parking areas
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Private trash collection; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Three or more levels; Slab foundation; Not waterfront
• Construction: Cedar siding with wood construction; Fiberglass insulation; Vinyl in-ground pool with electric heat
• Exterior features: Wrap-around deck and patio; Balcony; Fire pit; Garden; Rain gutters; Pergola; Full fencing; Back and front yard; Landscaped grounds; Private setting; Level lot; Partially wooded; Front sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include 7 (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and wood heating; Ductless and zoned cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Quartz/quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside the home, in the kitchen area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.95M).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,082/mo this rent would consume 186% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $58k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $546k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $890k; list at $1.95M implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,950,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,746,458
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Hill Side Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,211 (+2%)	6mo	$2,160,000	$977	84
25 Oyster Shores Rd	0.64mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,202 (+1%)	10mo	$3,700,000	$1,680	47
17 Island Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+6%)	24mo	$2,900,000	$1,261	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $29,012
• Equity at exit: $290,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $814,377
• Equity at exit: $168,600

Cash invested: $546,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax from tax record: −$1,067 /mo · $12,805/yr
• Insurance: −$812
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,217
• Net cashflow: $3,759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,324

Max offer price $1,950,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $487,500
• Closing costs: $58,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Howard St East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$75,000	$37.50	22d	1	0.11mi
3 Birdie Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	1d	1	0.53mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	44d	1	0.81mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	24d	1	1.11mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	44d	1	1.13mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	1.13mi
117 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1496	$65,000	$43.45	44d	1	1.18mi
17 Joshua Edwards Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$40,000	$22.22	44d	1	1.20mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	44d	1	1.40mi
23 Wooded Oak Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$25,000	$16.03	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $1,950,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,805 · $1,067/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,880 · $1,907/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,075/yr (+$840/mo · 78.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$109,230
• − Property taxes: −$12,805
• − Insurance: −$9,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,278
• − Management: −$19,278
• − Depreciation: −$56,727
• Taxable income: $13,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,339
• After-tax cash flow: $41,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $1,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $890,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $855,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $815,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,805 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.