11923 W Briar Patch Dr · Bon Air, VA 23113

$245,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,164 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained townhome in heart of Midlothian! Newer carpet, vinyl floors and paint. Wood burning fireplace in living room. Dining room is open to both the kitchen and living room. Attached storage shed off of rear deck. Pull down attic for additional storage. Quick possession available! Please note that Association fees include Gas and water!!!

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Community pool
• Updated condo

Tags

• UPDATED CONDO
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• COZY WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE UPGRADED DECK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#103 in VA, #3,251 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robious Elementary (math 54% / reading 68%, grade B, #524 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 662 students, 21% FRL); Robious Middle (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #58 of 342 statewide, top 17%, 1,129 students, 26% FRL); James River High (math 56% / reading 86%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $245k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,756 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-55,852
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-47,039
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23113

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,803/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$368
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,412

Max offer price $180,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-297	+0% $-367	+5% $-436	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-444	+0% $-367	+5% $-290	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-304	base $-367	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1724 Featherstone Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.08mi
11704 S Briar Patch Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	1.5	1164	$1,800	$1.55	45d	1	0.17mi
1701 Irondale Rd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1002	$1,844	$1.84	3d	12	0.47mi
2301 Thoroughbred Cir Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$2,068	$2.34	5d	3	0.52mi
11900 Bellaverde Cir North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,712	$1.69	3d	21	0.74mi
12400 Dutton Rd Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$2,392	$2.35	3d	24	0.75mi
2000 Breezy Point Cir North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,922	$1.88	3d	31	0.89mi
1301 Buckingham Station Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,855	$1.70	3d	52	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,803
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − HOA: −$4,416
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$8,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bon Air

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #3251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 33,207
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,477
• Household income: $142,344
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.10%
• Current HPI: 261.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+380.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $245,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-07-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-01-27 Listed $147,900 CVRMLS
• 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-17 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-04-17 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-02-16 Listed $145,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-02-16 Listed $145,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-06 Sold (MLS) $115,500 CVRMLS
• 2004-12-06 Sold (MLS) $115,500 CVRMLS
• 2004-10-25 Listed $113,500 CVRMLS
• 2004-10-25 Listed $113,500 CVRMLS
• 1992-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,450 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,803 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.