8907 Talon Ln · Meadowbrook, VA 23237

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1986 10,280 sqft lot Est $269k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home. The interior features an open family room and kitchen. There is a built-in custom bar between the family room and kitchen. There is a large utility room with custom shelving for storage. The three bedrooms are spacious. There are newer vinyl replacement windows and the roof is only a couple years old. The backyard is fenced with a patio. There is a storage shed that conveys as well.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built previously (actual year built not specified)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Patio; Outbuilding / storage shed; Fenced backyard with wood privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen to great room; Dishwasher; Electric cooking; Oven; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (first level) — new carpet, fresh paint; Bedroom 3 (first level) — new carpet, fresh paint; Additional bedroom/great room area (first level) with new carpet and fresh paint
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window and wall cooling units
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: First-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($288/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 989 students, 80% FRL); Salem Church Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #309 of 342 statewide, top 91%, 910 students, 80% FRL); Lloyd C. Bird High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,031 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $265k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,500 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8907 Talon Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,048 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$253	99
4271 Laurel Oak Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+1%)	6mo	$288,000	$273	75
9100 Hopkins Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+1%)	14mo	$181,250	$172	71
4317 Laurel Oak Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+1%)	8mo	$274,500	$260	70
4139 Laurel Oak Rd	0.19mi	3/1.5	996 (-5%)	19mo	$260,000	$261	65
4244 Laurel Oak Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+13%)	2mo	$320,000	$269	61
8718 Firethorne Ln	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+1%)	14mo	$255,000	$241	60
9009 Laurel Oaks	0.27mi	3/1.0	954 (-9%)	16mo	$257,800	$270	59
9006 Blue Oak Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+12%)	20mo	$302,000	$257	47
8719 Firethorne Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+11%)	7mo	$270,000	$232	45
8901 Firethorne Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+15%)	5mo	$275,500	$229	42
9232 Lost Forest Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+7%)	17mo	$268,000	$239	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,479
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-34,420
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23237

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,045/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $99	+0% $24	+5% $-51	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-61	+0% $24	+5% $109	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $91	base $24	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5106 Chesswood Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,995	$1.82	25d	1	0.77mi
5401 Bellmeadows Rd North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,095	$1.82	45d	1	1.21mi
5712 Sara Kay Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,200	$2.18	45d	1	1.36mi
5712 Sara Kay Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,100	$2.08	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2026-04-08
   historical $265,000
4. 2014-06-30
   soldstatus $75,000
5. 2014-06-27
   soldstatus $75,000 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Come check out this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home. The interior features an open family room and kitchen. There is a built-in custom bar between the family room and kitchen. There is a large utility room with custom shelving for storage. The three bedrooms are spacious. There are newer vinyl replacement windows and the roof is only a couple years old. The backyard is fenced with a patio. There is a storage shed that conveys as well.

6. 2014-02-25
   historical 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Come check out this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home. The interior features an open family room and kitchen. There is a built-in custom bar between the family room and kitchen. There is a large utility room with custom shelving for storage. The three bedrooms are spacious. There are newer vinyl replacement windows and the roof is only a couple years old. The backyard is fenced with a patio. There is a storage shed that conveys as well.

7. 2014-02-08
   listed $75,000 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Come check out this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home. The interior features an open family room and kitchen. There is a built-in custom bar between the family room and kitchen. There is a large utility room with custom shelving for storage. The three bedrooms are spacious. There are newer vinyl replacement windows and the roof is only a couple years old. The backyard is fenced with a patio. There is a storage shed that conveys as well.

8. 2008-08-08
   historical
9. 2008-08-08
   historical
10. 2008-06-23
    listed $140,000
11. 2008-06-23
    listed $140,000
12. 2002-05-31
    soldstatus $87,500
13. 2002-05-31
    soldstatus $87,500
14. 2002-03-23
    listed $87,500
15. 2002-03-23
    listed $87,500
16. 1994-05-09
    soldstatus $54,950
17. 1986-01-15
    soldstatus $51,480

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,045
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Meadowbrook

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #5004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 46,284
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,126
• Household income: $79,606
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.73%
• Current HPI: 303.329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+414.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $265,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $265,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-02-25 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2014-02-08 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-08-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-08-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-06-23 Listed $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-06-23 Listed $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2002-05-31 Sold (MLS) $87,500 CVRMLS
• 2002-03-23 Listed $87,500 CVRMLS
• 2002-03-23 Listed $87,500 CVRMLS
• 1994-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $54,950 Public Records
• 1986-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $51,480 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,045 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.