221 2nd St · Manning, IA 51455

$200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $223k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming, Move In Ready 4BR / 3BA Home & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; Nearly 2,300 Square Feet, Large Lot, New Garage, Quiet Location Bright, updated and spacious & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home with nearly 2,300 square feet blends classic curb appeal with modern convenience. Fresh updates and maintenance free features make it truly move-in ready. Main Features & acirc; & euro; & cent; 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths & acirc; & euro; & cent; Nearly 2,300 square feet of comfortable living space & acirc; & euro; & cent; Very large family room with fireplace and vaulted ceiling & acirc; &

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• New garage
• Charming gazebo

Tags

• NEW GARAGE
• LARGE LOT
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• CHARMING GAZEBO
• EXPANSIVE 3 SEASON PATIO
• MAINTENANCE FREE VINYL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (37.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#107 in IA, #2,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,186 (37.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Ann St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,080 (-9%)	5mo	$290,000	$139	63
912 Center St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-4%)	7mo	$181,500	$83	54
1010 Center St	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-6%)	9mo	$319,500	$148	53
128 East St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-14%)	22mo	$150,000	$77	44
71 May St	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,954 (-14%)	24mo	$192,000	$98	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $90,221
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $280,276
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51455

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $148,238

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ikm-Manning Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914880
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,285
• Composite: 64.68/100
• National rank: #524
• State rank: #58 of 289 in IA

Livability — Manning

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #2085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manning, IA
• City population: 2,303
• Population (ZIP): 2,303

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,745 people
• By 2030: 19,244 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 18,251 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 17,223 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 16,258 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 15,591 · -21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 28.4% · R 70.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.6pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+6.3 2008: D+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.68%
• Current HPI: 296.99
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,798 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.