1930 Larson Rd #34 · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$15,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 205 Days on market

Built 1974 $37/sqft · 86% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the Heat in Your Own Cozy Get-Away in Peaceful Singing, Pines, a Tall Pine Covered 55+ RV Park Close to Rainbow Lake. This Cozy Home is protected by a Full Metal Snow Roof and has both a Gas Wall Heat and a Wood Stove....For the Occasional Warm Summer Day, there is an Evaporate Cooler Too !Two Sleeping Areas, Kitchen, Living/Dining area and Bathroom make this Furnished Home your Retreat from.......

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Built 1974
• Listed 204 days

Tags

• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 73.4% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 239.61%
• DSCR: 11.66
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -86.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1930 Larson #1 Rd #1	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-2%)	20mo	$18,000	$45	80
3489 Rainbow Lake Dr #89	0.20mi	1/1.0	456 (+12%)	23mo	$48,000	$105	52
3629 W White Mountain Blvd	0.57mi	1/1.0	450 (+10%)	21mo	$17,000	$38	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.14×
• Total profit: $51,001
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.97×
• Total profit: $113,262
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   price $15,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $17,500 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $17,500 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $17,500 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 185 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    price $17,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Escape the Heat in Your Own Cozy Get-Away in Peaceful Singing, Pines, a Tall Pine Covered 55+ RV Park Close to Rainbow Lake. This Cozy Home is protected by a Full Metal Snow Roof and has both a Gas Wall Heat and a Wood Stove....For the Occasional Warm Summer Day, there is an Evaporate Cooler Too !Two Sleeping Areas, Kitchen, Living/Dining area and Bathroom make this Furnished Home your Retreat from.......

18. 2025-12-15
    price $24,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Escape the Heat in Your Own Cozy Get-Away in Peaceful Singing, Pines, a Tall Pine Covered 55+ RV Park Close to Rainbow Lake. This Cozy Home is protected by a Full Metal Snow Roof and has both a Gas Wall Heat and a Wood Stove....For the Occasional Warm Summer Day, there is an Evaporate Cooler Too !Two Sleeping Areas, Kitchen, Living/Dining area and Bathroom make this Furnished Home your Retreat from.......

19. 2025-11-26
    listed $27,500 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Escape the Heat in Your Own Cozy Get-Away in Peaceful Singing, Pines, a Tall Pine Covered 55+ RV Park Close to Rainbow Lake. This Cozy Home is protected by a Full Metal Snow Roof and has both a Gas Wall Heat and a Wood Stove....For the Occasional Warm Summer Day, there is an Evaporate Cooler Too !Two Sleeping Areas, Kitchen, Living/Dining area and Bathroom make this Furnished Home your Retreat from.......

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $10,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,507
• After-tax cash flow: $7,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $17,500 WMMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $24,500 WMMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $27,500 WMMLS