186 Waterview Dr · Whitney, TX 76692

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1953 0.54 ac lot $52/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in the 1950s, this classic lake cabin has hosted generations of camping trips and family gatherings near beautiful Lake Whitney. Sitting on two lots totaling approximately 0.545 acres, there is plenty of room for parking, outdoor games, and future improvements. The metal roof was installed in 2008, and the kitchen and bathrooms were updated in 2014, giving you a solid head start on the big-ticket items. The home includes a large storage building, perfect for lake toys, lawn equipment, and all your summer gear. Inside, you will find generously sized bedrooms that can easily accommodate bunk beds or multiple beds, making it ideal for hosting friends and family. Five window units help ke

Key facts

• Two lots
• Lake cabin
• Metal roof

Tags

• LAKE CABIN
• TWO LOTS
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 128018; County: Hill
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: No association; Community amenities: lake, marina

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Outside paved parking
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Electricity connected; Septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1953; Flat metal roof; Combination foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Storage; Cleared, level lot; Approximately 0.545 acre lot; Will not subdivide

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Paneling; One living area; One dining area; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.1% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitney El (393 students, 74% FRL); Whitney Middle (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 344 students, 62% FRL); Whitney H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 441 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.72%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,310
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -57.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Private Road 129	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,384 (+8%)	9mo	$128,000	$54	61
110 Private Road 128	0.52mi	2/2.0	2,083 (-5%)	15mo	$475,000	$228	55
116 Canyon Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,987 (-10%)	18mo	$289,000	$145	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $52,748
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $138,058
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,453/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,185	-5% $1,152	+0% $1,120	+5% $1,087	+10% $1,055
Rent	-10% $922	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,120	+5% $1,218	+10% $1,317
Rate	-1.0pp $1,178	-0.5pp $1,149	base $1,120	+0.5pp $1,090	+1.0pp $1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
196 Crowfoot Ln Whitney, TX	3.0	2.0	2343	$2,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $115,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $115,000 Active 1069-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,453
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $12,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,972
• After-tax cash flow: $10,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,453 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.