2745 El Rey St · Antioch, CA 94509

$375,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1952 5,300 sqft lot $338/sqft · 24% below area Est $493k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-story home in an established Antioch neighborhood, an ideal opportunity for first-time buyers or savvy investors! Offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1,108 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 5,300 sq ft lot. Step inside to a bright, open living area featuring hard wood flooring and a large picture window that fills the space with natural light. The kitchen has beautiful, warm wood cabinetry, ample storage, tile flooring, a gas range, built-in microwave, and stainless steel dishwasher. All three bedrooms include ceiling fans and well-proportioned space, while the bath features a sleek glass-enclosed shower and modern vanity. Out back, enjoy California living on the spacious

Key facts

• Warm wood cabinetry
• Hard wood flooring
• Large picture window

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORING
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• WARM WOOD CABINETRY
• TILE FLOORING
• GAS RANGE
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 covered parking space (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1952
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1952
• Exterior features: Front porch with awning; Covered patio; Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Garden/play area; Storage area; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Updated kitchen features
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; No additional rooms; Main entry at street level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,677 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,773
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -23.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2744 El Rey St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,108 (0%)	2mo	$445,000	$402	97
2721 Capistrano St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+1%)	3mo	$445,000	$397	90
401 San Joaquin Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-2%)	4mo	$464,000	$429	81
525 Faria St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+8%)	2mo	$540,000	$450	73
2744 Capistrano St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+12%)	4mo	$458,000	$368	73
2809 D St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,154 (+4%)	8mo	$460,000	$399	65
24 Lawrence Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,178 (+6%)	2mo	$539,800	$458	60
4 Wightman Ct	0.42mi	3/1.0	964 (-13%)	3mo	$430,000	$446	56
209 W 17th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+4%)	4mo	$460,000	$398	53
606 W 20th St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+10%)	3mo	$415,000	$341	52
28 W Madill St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+13%)	1mo	$495,000	$396	49
10 Belshaw St	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,224 (+10%)	8mo	$565,000	$462	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-80,489
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-108,681
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,820

Max offer price $334,027

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Wightman Ct Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	5d	1	0.37mi
304 Robert St Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1201	$3,069	$2.56	24d	1	0.39mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.41mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	43d	1	0.41mi
24 Lawrence Ave Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1178	$2,200	$1.87	43d	1	0.41mi
313 Lawton St Unit LAW-08 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,895	$2.47	43d	1	0.41mi
313 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,850	$2.41	24d	1	0.41mi
400 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	18d	1	0.45mi
370 Lawton St Unit Lawton-370B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,099	$2.21	43d	1	0.45mi
3126 Lone Tree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,595	$1.91	15d	1	0.50mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	15d	1	0.61mi
31 Sunset Dr Unit B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	0.64mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	43d	1	0.66mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	43d	1	0.67mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	5d	1	0.67mi
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	43d	1	0.73mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	18d	1	0.74mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	4d	1	0.77mi
30 W 17th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1321	$2,750	$2.08	43d	1	0.77mi
3513 Clayburn Rd Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$3,500	$2.86	43d	1	0.79mi
2202 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	4.0	2.5	1487	$3,500	$2.35	43d	1	0.85mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	43d	1	0.86mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	43d	1	0.87mi
108 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,695	$2.45	43d	1	0.88mi
141 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,500	$2.02	43d	1	0.88mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	5d	1	0.91mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	43d	1	0.96mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	43d	1	0.97mi
2004 Cavallo Rd Unit A Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,450	$2.30	3d	1	1.00mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	43d	1	1.00mi
1017 H St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,950	$2.36	24d	1	1.01mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	44d	1	1.03mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,400	$2.36	1d	10	1.04mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	43d	1	1.06mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	5d	1	1.07mi
2005 San Jose Dr #241 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5	782	$1,900	$2.43	5d	1	1.07mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	1.09mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	2d	12	1.11mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	10d	1	1.11mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	1d	22	1.15mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $375,000 Active 1080-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,850 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,586/yr (+$132/mo · 125.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,426
• − Management: −$2,426
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $375,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,264 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.