12121 La Cuchilla · San Antonio, TX 78245

$166,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · Townhouse · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $140/sqft · 7% below area Est $180k · 7% under $106/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $167k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,989 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,821
• List price: $166,999
• Delta: -7.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,565
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-31,098
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $166,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14618 Fowler Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,776	$1.40	14d	1	0.03mi
3232 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,495	$1.28	43d	1	0.66mi
3303 Mission Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.70mi
12126 Sampson Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,895	$1.27	23d	1	0.72mi
11902 Mulberry Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,647	$1.17	43d	1	0.75mi
12141 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,595	$1.14	2d	1	0.75mi
12010 Mulberry Crk Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	14d	1	0.76mi
1526 Alaskan Wolf San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,400	$1.27	3d	1	1.42mi
2422 Buffalo Pass Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	1.44mi
11727 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $166,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $169,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-23
   price $189,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-22
   status Back on Market 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-04
   price $169,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-03
   price $168,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-04-02
   price $170,999 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-25
    price $173,999 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-03-24
    price $172,999 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-03-18
    price $181,999 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-02-18
    listed $187,999 New 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Baja - This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$1,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$298
• After-tax cash flow: $1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, two-story townhouse is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained exterior, open-concept design, and modern appliances. The property is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $166,999 LERA
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $169,999 LERA
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $189,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-07 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $169,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $168,999 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $170,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $173,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $172,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $181,999 LERA
• 2026-02-18 Listed $187,999 LERA