112 Rising Star · Quitman, TX 75783

$155,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2016 10,019 sqft lot $127/sqft · 6% above area Est $147k · 6% over $52/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your fishing retreat awaits at Lake Fork! This charming 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath single-wide modular home sits on a spacious 100x100 corner lot in the gated waterfront community of Holiday Village. Thoughtfully updated with new vinyl plank flooring, smart siding, and handicap-accessible ramps on both the covered front porch and back deck, this home also features a large fenced yard with doggie door, storm shelter, carport with storage room, and negotiable furnishings. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, or an income-producing investment. Holiday Village offers fantastic amenities including fishing piers, boat ramps, a clubhouse with table games, swimming pool, playgrounds, basketball court, picnic areas, and a variety of community activities like potlucks, bingo, chair yoga, and more. HOA dues are $52 per month and the well-water filtration and sewer services at $65 each plus usage. High-speed internet is available, you can bring your golf cart, ATV, boat, and fishing pole and start enjoying lake life today!

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Storm shelter
• Fishing piers

Tags

• GATED WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• STORM SHELTER
• CARPORT WITH STORAGE ROOM
• FISHING PIERS
• BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-14/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Quitman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in TX, #3,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,257 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,502
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 Apache	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,326 (+9%)	2mo	$200,000	$151	75
140 Wapiti	0.24mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+3%)	9mo	$150,000	$120	68
141 County Road 1215	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-1%)	1mo	$170,000	$142	62
342 Whitedove	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+3%)	18mo	$50,000	$40	62
434 Geronimo	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	2mo	$120,000	$88	61
408 Whitefoot	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+11%)	6mo	$244,900	$181	60
399 Cheyenne	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-8%)	14mo	$89,900	$80	60
167 Shawnee	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+1%)	8mo	$269,900	$219	59
179 Wichita	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-10%)	10mo	$275,000	$250	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-25,168
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,913
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75783

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $154,791

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $43	+0% $-1	+5% $-45	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-55	+0% $-1	+5% $53	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $38	base $-1	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $155,000 Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Your fishing retreat awaits at Lake Fork! This charming 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath single-wide modular home sits on a spacious 100x100 corner lot in the gated waterfront community of Holiday Village. Thoughtfully updated with new vinyl plank flooring, smart siding, and handicap-accessible ramps on both the covered front porch and back deck, this home also features a large fenced yard with doggie door, storm shelter, carport with storage room, and negotiable furnishings. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, or an income-producing investment. Holiday Village offers fantastic amenities including fishing piers, boat ramps, a clubhouse with table games, swimming pool, playgrounds, basketball court, picnic areas, and a variety of community activities like potlucks, bingo, chair yoga, and more. HOA dues are $52 per month and the well-water filtration and sewer services at $65 each plus usage. High-speed internet is available, you can bring your golf cart, ATV, boat, and fishing pole and start enjoying lake life today!

18. 2026-03-17
    historical
19. 2025-10-01
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,058/yr (+$88/mo · 59.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,081
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5063
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quitman

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,011

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.83%
• Current HPI: 234.4883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $159,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.