136 Cannon Ln · Bracey, VA 23919

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately 1 acre with beautiful views of Lake Gaston. This property features a large family room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a spacious eat-in kitchen that includes all appliances. A utility shed provides additional storage for convenience. Currently rented with rental history available, this home offers great potential as an investment property or future personal retreat. Enjoy the peaceful setting while still benefiting from easy access to I-85, Bracey, and nearby winery. A wonderful opportunity to own a property with both comfort and convenience in a desirable location.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Utility shed
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UTILITY SHED
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-85

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $28.33/month

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking, no garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (modular/off-frame); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Has view; Other structure: storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $230k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,816 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $20,764
• Equity at exit: $83,593

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $82,027
• Equity at exit: $115,122

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $230,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $250,000 Active 648-char remark
19. 2025-07-25
    historical $1,395
20. 2025-07-12
    price $1,395
21. 2025-07-09
    listed $1,400
22. 2005-04-19
    soldstatus $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,315/yr (+$110/mo · 230.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$406
• After-tax cash flow: $2,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $230,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 RVLG
• 2025-07-25 Rental Removed $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2005-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.