3950 Hwy 4 #27 · Arnold, CA 95224

$29,950

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 241 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $38k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tanwood Mobile Home Community, where you'll find this well-maintained 1970 Fleetwood home offering 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Enjoy the benefits of low space rent at just $595 per month. This home features a comfortable floor plan with a spacious living area and a functional kitchen layout. The primary bedroom includes ample built-in storage, providing both convenience and charm. Perfect for buyers seeking an affordable and peaceful community setting, this home offers great potential and value.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1970
• Listed 240 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount stated as $595
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease not required (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; 220V outlet in kitchen; Public water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Built in 1970
• Construction: Wood skirting; Fleetwood manufacturer
• Exterior features: Metal roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Kitchen open to family/dining area; Living room with unspecified additional feature
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$38,160) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.4% vs local median 1.6% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#582 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $336 of equity ($208 loan paydown + $128 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,356 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.94%
• DSCR: 5.31
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Hwy 4 #20	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	22mo	$37,950	$53	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $42,894
• Equity at exit: $9,344

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.64×
• Total profit: $97,606
• Equity at exit: $11,762

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95224

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $29,950 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,950 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,950 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,950 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,950 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,950 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,950 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,950 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,950 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,950 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,950 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,950 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,950 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,950 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,950 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,950 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,950 Active 222 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,950 Active 221 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $8,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,953
• After-tax cash flow: $6,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #18929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 265

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Native American 21% Hispanic / Latino 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 16%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 22% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.43%
• Current HPI: 163.6409
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B