1928 Tesoro Loop NW · Los Lunas, NM 87031

$359,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed single-story residence offering a seamless blend of comfort and sophistication. The expansive open living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into a chef-inspired kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, abundant cabinetry, and a spacious pantry. Privately situated at the rear of the home, the serene primary suite features a spa-like en-suite bath designed for relaxation. Three additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or flex space. Step outside to the covered backyard patio and take in the stunning views, creating the perfect backdrop for entertaining or enjoying peaceful evenings at home. Don

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Open living area
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $90 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected (public); Public sewer; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Built by DR Horton
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Pitched tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Sprinkler / irrigation; Covered patio; Wall fencing; Landscaped; Views; Xeriscape; City street frontage; Has view; Faces west

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Dual sinks; Separate shower; Soaking tub / garden tub / Roman tub; Bathtub; Water closet(s); Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-896/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Los Lunas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,052/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $305,189 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-46,749
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $26,778
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,081/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,146

Max offer price $345,817

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $27	+0% $-75	+5% $-176	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-195	+0% $-75	+5% $46	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $17	base $-75	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Tierra Verde Loop NW Los Lunas, NM	3.0	3.0	1917	$3,600	$1.88	25d	1	0.25mi
1811 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	3.0	2302	$3,400	$1.48	45d	1	0.44mi
1806 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,349	$0.99	5d	1	0.46mi
1748 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,125	$1.26	18d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $359,000 Active
2. 2025-09-21
   price $359,900
3. 2025-08-05
   price $364,900
4. 2025-07-26
   price $374,900
5. 2023-04-11
   status Pending
6. 2023-04-04
   price $342,990
7. 2023-03-27
   price $343,990
8. 2023-03-14
   price $344,990
9. 2023-02-27
   price $349,990
10. 2023-02-26
    listed $314,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,081 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,081 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$5,081
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,930
• − Management: −$2,930
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$7,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Los Lunas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #12347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Lunas, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 47,514
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+14.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $359,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $359,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $364,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $374,900 Southwest MLS
• 2023-04-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $342,990 Southwest MLS
• 2023-03-27 Price Changed $343,990 Southwest MLS
• 2023-03-14 Price Changed $344,990 Southwest MLS
• 2023-02-27 Price Changed $349,990 Southwest MLS
• 2023-02-26 Listed $314,990 Southwest MLS