353 38th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1955 4,950 sqft lot $99/sqft · 20% below area Est $224k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 353 38TH ST Niagara Falls this solid 2-unit all-brick house in the heart of Niagara Falls! This well-maintained property features separate entrances for each unit, offering privacy and flexibility—perfect for owner-occupants or investors. Each unit is heated with its own furnace, just 1 year old, ensuring energy efficiency and comfort. The spacious 3-car driveway provides plenty of off-street parking. Whether you choose to live in one unit and rent out the other, or rent both for strong cash flow, this property is a smart investment. Conveniently located close to schools, shopping, parks, and public transportation—a great opportunity in a high-demand area!

Key facts

• 3-car driveway
• Close to parks
• Close to schools

Tags

• SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• OWN FURNACE
• 3-CAR DRIVEWAY
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $153/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,623/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $180k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.26%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,732
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -19.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2615 Ferry Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+1%)	6mo	$115,000	$62	63
335 27th St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+1%)	18mo	$106,000	$57	57
3580 Chapin Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,053 (+13%)	10mo	$220,000	$107	54
2792 Livingston Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-5%)	22mo	$110,000	$64	52
2491 Cudaback Ave	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-5%)	9mo	$77,000	$45	49
447 25th St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-5%)	19mo	$95,000	$55	42
2926 Grand Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-4%)	24mo	$185,000	$105	42
2738 Welch Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-11%)	14mo	$141,110	$87	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,294
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,497
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,623 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,437/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,622
Total (2 units)			$2,623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	0.16mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.76mi
508 59th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	2070	$1,400	$0.68	2d	1	1.07mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	1.18mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $180,000 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome to 353 38TH ST Niagara Falls this solid 2-unit all-brick house in the heart of Niagara Falls! This well-maintained property features separate entrances for each unit, offering privacy and flexibility—perfect for owner-occupants or investors. Each unit is heated with its own furnace, just 1 year old, ensuring energy efficiency and comfort. The spacious 3-car driveway provides plenty of off-street parking. Whether you choose to live in one unit and rent out the other, or rent both for strong cash flow, this property is a smart investment. Conveniently located close to schools, shopping, parks, and public transportation—a great opportunity in a high-demand area!

16. 2026-03-29
    listed $185,000 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome to 353 38TH ST Niagara Falls this solid 2-unit all-brick house in the heart of Niagara Falls! This well-maintained property features separate entrances for each unit, offering privacy and flexibility—perfect for owner-occupants or investors. Each unit is heated with its own furnace, just 1 year old, ensuring energy efficiency and comfort. The spacious 3-car driveway provides plenty of off-street parking. Whether you choose to live in one unit and rent out the other, or rent both for strong cash flow, this property is a smart investment. Conveniently located close to schools, shopping, parks, and public transportation—a great opportunity in a high-demand area!

17. 2026-03-25
    historical
18. 2026-02-08
    price $185,000
19. 2026-01-25
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2026-01-07
    historical
21. 2025-12-23
    price $190,000
22. 2025-11-29
    price $193,000
23. 2025-11-10
    price $195,000
24. 2025-10-23
    listed $200,000 Active
25. 2025-10-03
    historical
26. 2025-08-09
    price $193,000
27. 2025-07-02
    listed $195,000 Active
28. 2025-06-06
    historical
29. 2025-05-23
    price $188,000
30. 2025-05-15
    price $190,000
31. 2025-05-13
    price $195,000
32. 2025-03-06
    listed $198,000 Active
33. 2024-10-04
    historical
34. 2024-09-18
    listed $185,000 Active
35. 2024-09-16
    historical
36. 2024-09-07
    listed $197,000 Active
37. 2023-04-21
    historical
38. 2023-01-31
    listed $130,000 Active
39. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus $82,600 Closed Sale or Rented
40. 2023-01-25
    soldstatus $83,000
41. 2022-08-27
    status Pending Sale
42. 2022-08-10
    listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,437 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,437 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,437
• − Insurance: −$6,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$302
• After-tax cash flow: $3,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $180,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $190,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $190,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $193,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $200,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $193,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $188,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $190,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $198,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $197,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-26 Sold (MLS) $82,600 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,437 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.