29 Adams Ln · Hollister, MO 65611

$149,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · Other · 71 Days on market

Built 1970 10,454 sqft lot $112/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy affordable lake living with this Table Rock Lake view home in Blue Eye, Missouri, situated on 0.24 acres. This log cabin style home offers charm, functionality, and room to grow with a metal roof, covered parking, and additional potential. The updated main level features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a comfortable and inviting space. The kitchen includes gray cabinetry, stainless appliances, a tile backsplash, and a cozy seating area positioned by a picturesque window overlooking the lake. The main floor also includes a primary bedroom and a full bathroom with a jetted tub. Downstairs, the basement provides excellent flexibility with space for a second living area or guest quarters along with a second full bathroom featuring a walk in shower. Step outside to relax on the covered deck and take in the peaceful setting and lake views. With its combination of affordability, scenic surroundings, and versatile layout, this property is ideal for those seeking a lake retreat, full time residence, or investment opportunity near Table Rock Lake.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Covered parking
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• LOG CABIN STYLE
• METAL ROOF
• COVERED PARKING
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• GRAY CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Hollister — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#109 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.29%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,919
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -52.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $24,602
• Equity at exit: $63,955

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $77,943
• Equity at exit: $96,259

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65611

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $149,000 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Enjoy affordable lake living with this Table Rock Lake view home in Blue Eye, Missouri, situated on 0.24 acres. This log cabin style home offers charm, functionality, and room to grow with a metal roof, covered parking, and additional potential. The updated main level features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a comfortable and inviting space. The kitchen includes gray cabinetry, stainless appliances, a tile backsplash, and a cozy seating area positioned by a picturesque window overlooking the lake. The main floor also includes a primary bedroom and a full bathroom with a jetted tub. Downstairs, the basement provides excellent flexibility with space for a second living area or guest quarters along with a second full bathroom featuring a walk in shower. Step outside to relax on the covered deck and take in the peaceful setting and lake views. With its combination of affordability, scenic surroundings, and versatile layout, this property is ideal for those seeking a lake retreat, full time residence, or investment opportunity near Table Rock Lake.

2. 2026-04-07
   price $159,900 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Enjoy affordable lake living with this Table Rock Lake view home in Blue Eye, Missouri, situated on 0.24 acres. This log cabin style home offers charm, functionality, and room to grow with a metal roof, covered parking, and additional potential. The updated main level features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a comfortable and inviting space. The kitchen includes gray cabinetry, stainless appliances, a tile backsplash, and a cozy seating area positioned by a picturesque window overlooking the lake. The main floor also includes a primary bedroom and a full bathroom with a jetted tub. Downstairs, the basement provides excellent flexibility with space for a second living area or guest quarters along with a second full bathroom featuring a walk in shower. Step outside to relax on the covered deck and take in the peaceful setting and lake views. With its combination of affordability, scenic surroundings, and versatile layout, this property is ideal for those seeking a lake retreat, full time residence, or investment opportunity near Table Rock Lake.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $179,900 Active 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Enjoy affordable lake living with this Table Rock Lake view home in Blue Eye, Missouri, situated on 0.24 acres. This log cabin style home offers charm, functionality, and room to grow with a metal roof, covered parking, and additional potential. The updated main level features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a comfortable and inviting space. The kitchen includes gray cabinetry, stainless appliances, a tile backsplash, and a cozy seating area positioned by a picturesque window overlooking the lake. The main floor also includes a primary bedroom and a full bathroom with a jetted tub. Downstairs, the basement provides excellent flexibility with space for a second living area or guest quarters along with a second full bathroom featuring a walk in shower. Step outside to relax on the covered deck and take in the peaceful setting and lake views. With its combination of affordability, scenic surroundings, and versatile layout, this property is ideal for those seeking a lake retreat, full time residence, or investment opportunity near Table Rock Lake.

4. 2025-09-30
   price $129,000
5. 2025-09-17
   price $168,000
6. 2025-08-15
   price $178,000
7. 2025-07-18
   price $147,000
8. 2025-07-06
   price $149,000
9. 2025-07-02
   price $155,000
10. 2025-06-30
    price $158,000
11. 2025-06-23
    price $159,000
12. 2025-03-20
    price $175,000
13. 2025-01-02
    listed $180,000 Active
14. 2023-01-17
    soldstatus
15. 2023-01-13
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2022-12-12
    status Pending
17. 2022-11-30
    listed $90,000 Active
18. 1991-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hollister

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #7035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,784

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Current HPI: 204.4936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $149,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $159,900 SOMO
• 2026-03-19 Listed $179,900 SOMO
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $129,000 SOMO
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $168,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $178,000 SOMO
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $147,000 SOMO
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $149,000 SOMO
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $155,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $158,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $159,000 SOMO
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $175,000 SOMO
• 2025-01-02 Listed $180,000 SOMO
• 2023-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-13 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2022-12-12 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-11-30 Listed $90,000 SOMO
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $155 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.