5223 Ariola Ln · Lumberton, TX 77657

$265,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1980 0.52 ac lot $120/sqft · 16% below area Est $315k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5223 Ariola Ln in Lumberton, TX! This beautifully renovated home sits on a spacious . 52-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of modern upgrades and peaceful country living. Step inside to an open-concept layout featuring updated flooring, fresh paint, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen is a true standout with quartz countertops, custom cabinetry, designer backsplash, and modern lightning. Enjoy a spacious yard with mature trees and a peaceful setting while still being close to town. Move-in ready and full of charm!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Renovated home

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,083 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,950
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -15.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6795 Palace Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,535 (+15%)	2mo	$419,900	$166	40
5820 Westchase Loop	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,514 (+14%)	1mo	$450,000	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-35,971
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-22,463
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $185	+0% $110	+5% $35	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $19	+0% $110	+5% $201	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $177	base $110	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	14d	1	0.69mi
6575 Daylily Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,350	$0.89	44d	1	1.08mi
6395 Jenny Ln Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	2274	$2,800	$1.23	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $265,000 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Welcome to 5223 Ariola Ln in Lumberton, TX! This beautifully renovated home sits on a spacious . 52-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of modern upgrades and peaceful country living. Step inside to an open-concept layout featuring updated flooring, fresh paint, and stylish finishes throughout. The kitchen is a true standout with quartz countertops, custom cabinetry, designer backsplash, and modern lightning. Enjoy a spacious yard with mature trees and a peaceful setting while still being close to town. Move-in ready and full of charm!

17. 2025-07-30
    soldstatus
18. 2025-07-28
    soldstatus Closed 821-char remark

    Show marketing remark (821 chars)

    Looking for a fixer-upper with great potential? This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, plus an office, located outside city limits in the desirable Lumberton ISD, is ready for its new owner! With space to convert into a 4th bedroom, game room, formal dining, the possibilities are endless. The property is about . 40 of an acre, also features a fenced-in backyard, perfect for privacy and outdoor activities. Restore this house and either add it to your rental portfolio or enjoy living debt-free with an affordable price tag. The home is equipped with city utilities but is outside city limits which means its unrestricted! Bring your farm animals, RV's, Boats, Campers, dig a pond or tear the house down and start new! Sold as-is. Cash or commercial/hard money loans only. Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity!

19. 2025-07-23
    listed $69,900 Active 821-char remark

    Show marketing remark (821 chars)

    Looking for a fixer-upper with great potential? This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, plus an office, located outside city limits in the desirable Lumberton ISD, is ready for its new owner! With space to convert into a 4th bedroom, game room, formal dining, the possibilities are endless. The property is about . 40 of an acre, also features a fenced-in backyard, perfect for privacy and outdoor activities. Restore this house and either add it to your rental portfolio or enjoy living debt-free with an affordable price tag. The home is equipped with city utilities but is outside city limits which means its unrestricted! Bring your farm animals, RV's, Boats, Campers, dig a pond or tear the house down and start new! Sold as-is. Cash or commercial/hard money loans only. Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity!

20. 2025-05-28
    status Pending
21. 2025-04-08
    status Active
22. 2025-04-08
    price $75,000
23. 2025-03-27
    status Pending
24. 2025-02-11
    listed $85,000 Active
25. 2024-10-21
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus
27. 2024-09-23
    status Pending
28. 2024-09-09
    listed $39,900 Active
29. 2024-09-05
    price $95,000
30. 2024-06-26
    price $119,900
31. 2024-04-02
    price $124,500
32. 2024-03-13
    price $129,900
33. 2015-05-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,360/yr (+$197/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$762
• After-tax cash flow: $2,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $265,000 BBOR
• 2025-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-28 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2025-07-23 Listed $69,900 BBOR
• 2025-05-28 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-04-08 Relisted — BBOR
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $75,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-27 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-02-11 Listed $85,000 BBOR
• 2024-10-21 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-23 Pending — BBOR
• 2024-09-09 Listed $39,900 BBOR
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $95,000 BBOR
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $119,900 BBOR
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $124,500 BBOR
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $129,900 BBOR
• 2015-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,490 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.