9463 E Colby Rd · Crystal, MI 48818

$1

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1970 0.55 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This will be a Sherwood Auction Property. Bidding to start on Thursday 5/28/2026 and end at 7pm on June 29th, 2026. Go to sherwoodautionservicellc.com to register to start bidding. Waterfront living just in time for summer! This spacious home offers approximately 70 feet of Duck Lake frontage and beautiful water views from the living room, which walks out to the deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With plenty of room to host family gatherings, the walk-out basement provides great potential for a family room and additional sleeping space. Recent updates include a furnace and central air that are only 2 years old. Enjoy the convenience of natural gas and city sewer, along with your own private well. A wonderful opportunity to make lake memories all summer long!

Key facts

• Water views
• Private well
• Walk-out basement

Tags

• DUCK LAKE FRONTAGE
• WATER VIEWS
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• PRIVATE WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Private well; Shared septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Sloped lot; Waterfront property on Duck Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Exhaust fan
• Interior features: Window treatments; Fireplace; Full basement with walk-out access (block and concrete, partially finished)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater; Owned water softener

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $152,280 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-449/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carson City-Crystal Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #449 of 540 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 228420.0% of price.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,280
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9698 E Colby Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-11%)	12mo	$274,900	$273	57
1881 Waterview Way	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-8%)	22mo	$114,200	$110	53
1401 S Miner Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (+9%)	6mo	$82,000	$67	41
9275 Michelle Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (-12%)	16mo	$155,000	$157	39
1495 Miner Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	960 (-15%)	12mo	$130,000	$135	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-27,039
• Equity at exit: $22,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-26,534
• Equity at exit: $13,166

Cash invested: $42,638 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48818

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Active inventory: 21

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$190 /mo · $2,284/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $146,867

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,070
• Closing costs: $4,568
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $1 Active

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This will be a Sherwood Auction Property. Bidding to start on Thursday 5/28/2026 and end at 7pm on June 29th, 2026. Go to sherwoodautionservicellc.com to register to start bidding. Waterfront living just in time for summer! This spacious home offers approximately 70 feet of Duck Lake frontage and beautiful water views from the living room, which walks out to the deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With plenty of room to host family gatherings, the walk-out basement provides great potential for a family room and additional sleeping space. Recent updates include a furnace and central air that are only 2 years old. Enjoy the convenience of natural gas and city sewer, along with your own private well. A wonderful opportunity to make lake memories all summer long!

17. 2026-05-26
    listed $1 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This will be a Sherwood Auction Property. Bidding to start on Thursday 5/28/2026 and end at 7pm on June 29th, 2026. Go to sherwoodautionservicellc.com to register to start bidding. Waterfront living just in time for summer! This spacious home offers approximately 70 feet of Duck Lake frontage and beautiful water views from the living room, which walks out to the deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With plenty of room to host family gatherings, the walk-out basement provides great potential for a family room and additional sleeping space. Recent updates include a furnace and central air that are only 2 years old. Enjoy the convenience of natural gas and city sewer, along with your own private well. A wonderful opportunity to make lake memories all summer long!

18. 2011-02-28
    soldstatus $71,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    72' OF DUCK LAKE WATERFRONT WITH 4 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME. OPEN DECK ON WATERFRONT SIDE OF HOME PLUS SCREENED PORCH. 1 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE, STORAGE SHED BY LAKE. NATURAL GAS FURNACE AND HOT WATER HEATER, WATER SOFTENER STAYS WITH PROPERTY. WALKOUT BASEMENT IS AT LAKEFRONT.

19. 2011-02-28
    soldstatus $71,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    72' OF DUCK LAKE WATERFRONT WITH 4 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME. OPEN DECK ON WATERFRONT SIDE OF HOME PLUS SCREENED PORCH. 1 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE, STORAGE SHED BY LAKE. NATURAL GAS FURNACE AND HOT WATER HEATER, WATER SOFTENER STAYS WITH PROPERTY. WALKOUT BASEMENT IS AT LAKEFRONT.

20. 2011-01-19
    historical
21. 2010-07-19
    listed $110,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    72' OF DUCK LAKE WATERFRONT WITH 4 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME. OPEN DECK ON WATERFRONT SIDE OF HOME PLUS SCREENED PORCH. 1 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE, STORAGE SHED BY LAKE. NATURAL GAS FURNACE AND HOT WATER HEATER, WATER SOFTENER STAYS WITH PROPERTY. WALKOUT BASEMENT IS AT LAKEFRONT.

22. 2010-07-19
    listed $110,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    72' OF DUCK LAKE WATERFRONT WITH 4 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME. OPEN DECK ON WATERFRONT SIDE OF HOME PLUS SCREENED PORCH. 1 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE, STORAGE SHED BY LAKE. NATURAL GAS FURNACE AND HOT WATER HEATER, WATER SOFTENER STAYS WITH PROPERTY. WALKOUT BASEMENT IS AT LAKEFRONT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,530
• − Property taxes: −$2,284
• − Insurance: −$761
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$4,430
• Taxable loss: −$3,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carson City-Crystal Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608130
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,566
• Composite: 18.83/100
• National rank: #8865
• State rank: #449 of 540 in MI

Livability — Crystal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,541

Population outlook (Montcalm County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,011 people
• By 2030: 59,467 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 55,427 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 50,517 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 38,731 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 26,770 · -56.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montcalm

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.8% · R 68.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.34%
• Current HPI: 200.7585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-35.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-26 Listed $1 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-28 Sold (MLS) $71,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-01-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-07-19 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-07-19 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS