914 Chase Creek Cir · Bacliff, TX 77518

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,279 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1998 6,647 sqft lot $88/sqft · 26% below area Est $270k · 26% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Chase Park subdivision, this home is just steps from the community pool and neighborhood green space. The property features a spacious open-concept layout with high ceilings in the living room, creating a bright and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes granite countertops and ample cabinetry, with a layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, while two additional bedrooms and a large game room upstairs offer flexible space for guests, work, or recreation. Enjoy outdoor living with a screened patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home offers a great opportunity to update and customize to your personal style while enjoying a prime location with easy access to League City, Kemah Boardwalk, Dickinson, and Texas City, along with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Community pool
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• COMMUNITY POOL
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SCREENED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-440/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Bacliff — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,104/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 672% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,270
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -26.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5006 Chase Lake Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,346 (+3%)	19mo	$285,000	$121	76
4934 Chase Stone Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,371 (+4%)	17mo	$269,000	$113	66
4717 17th St	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,130 (-6%)	0mo	$130,000	$61	66
602 Chase More Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,466 (+8%)	5mo	$229,900	$93	65
4806 Chase Stone Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,458 (+8%)	13mo	$285,000	$116	62
827 Chase View Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,993 (-12%)	3mo	$239,000	$120	61
4807 Chase Court Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,999 (-12%)	6mo	$230,000	$115	58
5130 Chase Court Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-12%)	16mo	$263,900	$132	54
5323 Chasewood Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,513 (+10%)	19mo	$295,000	$117	51
3610 Emerson St	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,346 (+3%)	10mo	$498,000	$212	46
4715 4th St	0.75mi	3/3.0	1,990 (-13%)	12mo	$246,500	$124	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,503
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,132
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77518

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,662/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,151

Max offer price $193,418

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $20	+0% $-37	+5% $-93	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-120	+0% $-37	+5% $46	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $14	base $-37	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1118 Chase Park Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,046	$1.10	0d	1	0.17mi
5139 Misty Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,970	$1.10	11d	1	1.03mi
5223 Gulf Stream Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,080	$1.17	11d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $238,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Chase Park subdivision, this home is just steps from the community pool and neighborhood green space. The property features a spacious open-concept layout with high ceilings in the living room, creating a bright and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes granite countertops and ample cabinetry, with a layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, while two additional bedrooms and a large game room upstairs offer flexible space for guests, work, or recreation. Enjoy outdoor living with a screened patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home offers a great opportunity to update and customize to your personal style while enjoying a prime location with easy access to League City, Kemah Boardwalk, Dickinson, and Texas City, along with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment.

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $256,500 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Chase Park subdivision, this home is just steps from the community pool and neighborhood green space. The property features a spacious open-concept layout with high ceilings in the living room, creating a bright and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes granite countertops and ample cabinetry, with a layout that flows easily into the dining and living areas. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, while two additional bedrooms and a large game room upstairs offer flexible space for guests, work, or recreation. Enjoy outdoor living with a screened patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home offers a great opportunity to update and customize to your personal style while enjoying a prime location with easy access to League City, Kemah Boardwalk, Dickinson, and Texas City, along with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment.

17. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus
18. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus
19. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus Sold 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome Home to 914 Chase Creek Cir. This lovely home is beautifully situated on the desirable Chase Creek cul-de-sac. Just outside the cul-de-sac is the community area including the pool. Great flow downstairs. High ceilings in the Living room. Spacious kitchen with granite counters. Master bedroom is down. Upstairs you will find 2 additional spacious bedrooms and a Game room. Enjoy your screened patio to pick up our pleasant Galveston Bay breezes. The Chase Park subdivision is so convenient to neighbors of League City, Kemah, Dickinson, Texas City. Don't miss this beautiful home! NO FLOODING PER SELLERS

20. 2018-08-29
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome Home to 914 Chase Creek Cir. This lovely home is beautifully situated on the desirable Chase Creek cul-de-sac. Just outside the cul-de-sac is the community area including the pool. Great flow downstairs. High ceilings in the Living room. Spacious kitchen with granite counters. Master bedroom is down. Upstairs you will find 2 additional spacious bedrooms and a Game room. Enjoy your screened patio to pick up our pleasant Galveston Bay breezes. The Chase Park subdivision is so convenient to neighbors of League City, Kemah, Dickinson, Texas City. Don't miss this beautiful home! NO FLOODING PER SELLERS

21. 2018-08-24
    price $205,000 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome Home to 914 Chase Creek Cir. This lovely home is beautifully situated on the desirable Chase Creek cul-de-sac. Just outside the cul-de-sac is the community area including the pool. Great flow downstairs. High ceilings in the Living room. Spacious kitchen with granite counters. Master bedroom is down. Upstairs you will find 2 additional spacious bedrooms and a Game room. Enjoy your screened patio to pick up our pleasant Galveston Bay breezes. The Chase Park subdivision is so convenient to neighbors of League City, Kemah, Dickinson, Texas City. Don't miss this beautiful home! NO FLOODING PER SELLERS

22. 2018-07-30
    price $210,000 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome Home to 914 Chase Creek Cir. This lovely home is beautifully situated on the desirable Chase Creek cul-de-sac. Just outside the cul-de-sac is the community area including the pool. Great flow downstairs. High ceilings in the Living room. Spacious kitchen with granite counters. Master bedroom is down. Upstairs you will find 2 additional spacious bedrooms and a Game room. Enjoy your screened patio to pick up our pleasant Galveston Bay breezes. The Chase Park subdivision is so convenient to neighbors of League City, Kemah, Dickinson, Texas City. Don't miss this beautiful home! NO FLOODING PER SELLERS

23. 2018-07-05
    listed $215,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome Home to 914 Chase Creek Cir. This lovely home is beautifully situated on the desirable Chase Creek cul-de-sac. Just outside the cul-de-sac is the community area including the pool. Great flow downstairs. High ceilings in the Living room. Spacious kitchen with granite counters. Master bedroom is down. Upstairs you will find 2 additional spacious bedrooms and a Game room. Enjoy your screened patio to pick up our pleasant Galveston Bay breezes. The Chase Park subdivision is so convenient to neighbors of League City, Kemah, Dickinson, Texas City. Don't miss this beautiful home! NO FLOODING PER SELLERS

24. 2012-11-07
    soldstatus
25. 2012-10-31
    soldstatus
26. 2012-09-22
    historical
27. 2012-05-30
    listed $149,990
28. 2012-05-30
    historical
29. 2011-07-23
    listed $149,990
30. 2008-12-01
    historical
31. 2008-07-29
    listed $165,000
32. 1998-04-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,662 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,662 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,662
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bacliff

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1252
• US rank: #21864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bacliff, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,541
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,541
• Household income: $51,458
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 43% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.15%
• Current HPI: 293.2677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $256,500 HARMLS
• 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-30 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-05 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2012-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-09-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-30 Listed $149,990 HARMLS
• 2011-07-23 Listed $149,990 HARMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-29 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1998-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,662 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.