3797 Hawks Landing Cir · Pace, FL 32571

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2019 6,098 sqft lot Est $326k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hawk's Landing, is located in close proximity to Pace's SS Dixon Intermediate and Sims Middle School! Need 4 bedrooms? Our "Rhett" floorplan is perfectly layed out for the whole family. The fourth bedroom is tucked away, perfect for a teen suite, office, or guest room. Gorgeous details in your long foyer, plenty of space to personalize with décor. Double treyed ceilings in living room, with crown moulding. GORGEOUS open kitchen with corner pantry, granite countertops, HUGE double sided island with large overhang for 3-4 barstools. Stainless Steel Frigidaire appliances. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling as well, with crown moulding. raised, double vanities, a very large walk in closet and a separate water closet (toilet room). The Rhett floorplan also has a separate laundry room and COVERED Back Porch! Photos are NOT of Actual house- under construction- similar house. This all brick home features Fabric Shield Hurricane shutter protection. Pictures may be of similar, but not necessarily of subject property, including exterior and interior colors.

Key facts

• Double trey ceilings
• Raised double vanity
• Corner pantry

Tags

• DOUBLE TREY CEILINGS
• CORNER PANTRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED DOUBLE-SIDED ISLAND
• RAISED DOUBLE VANITY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $236k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,805 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3797 Hawks Landing Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,830 (0%)	1mo	$310,000	$169	99
5324 Red Shoulder Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+0%)	1mo	$385,000	$210	96
5344 Red Shoulder Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,953 (+7%)	1mo	$332,000	$170	87
3875 Shady Grove Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-3%)	1mo	$310,000	$174	80
5185 Parkside Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-3%)	3mo	$325,900	$183	72
3637 Sweet Bay Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+2%)	2mo	$399,900	$214	70
5434 Stafford Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	1mo	$335,000	$178	66
5205 Chumuckla Hwy	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-9%)	4mo	$249,000	$150	62
3849 Ranch Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,084 (+14%)	2mo	$321,900	$154	61
3708 Lone Fox Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,561 (-15%)	4mo	$289,000	$185	60
5453 Hamilton Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-13%)	2mo	$269,900	$169	51
5053 Forest Creek Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-14%)	2mo	$306,000	$195	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,407
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-71,142
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,464/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $297,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-65	+0% $-157	+5% $-249	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-253	+0% $-157	+5% $-61	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-74	base $-157	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5097 Conservation Cir Milton, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,480	$1.19	24d	1	0.24mi
3614 Hawks Landing Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1953	$2,100	$1.08	24d	1	0.27mi
5857 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,145	$1.29	14d	1	1.37mi
5849 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,100	$1.21	24d	1	1.37mi
5768 Conley Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,100	$1.04	14d	1	1.46mi
3927 Tuscany Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,075	$1.12	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-02-13
   price $325,000
4. 2026-01-17
   listed $330,000 Active
5. 2020-03-23
   soldstatus $235,900 1095-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1095 chars)

   Hawk's Landing, is located in close proximity to Pace's SS Dixon Intermediate and Sims Middle School! Need 4 bedrooms? Our "Rhett" floorplan is perfectly layed out for the whole family. The fourth bedroom is tucked away, perfect for a teen suite, office, or guest room. Gorgeous details in your long foyer, plenty of space to personalize with décor. Double treyed ceilings in living room, with crown moulding. GORGEOUS open kitchen with corner pantry, granite countertops, HUGE double sided island with large overhang for 3-4 barstools. Stainless Steel Frigidaire appliances. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling as well, with crown moulding. raised, double vanities, a very large walk in closet and a separate water closet (toilet room). The Rhett floorplan also has a separate laundry room and COVERED Back Porch! Photos are NOT of Actual house- under construction- similar house. This all brick home features Fabric Shield Hurricane shutter protection. Pictures may be of similar, but not necessarily of subject property, including exterior and interior colors.

6. 2019-10-17
   listed $235,900 1095-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1095 chars)

   Hawk's Landing, is located in close proximity to Pace's SS Dixon Intermediate and Sims Middle School! Need 4 bedrooms? Our "Rhett" floorplan is perfectly layed out for the whole family. The fourth bedroom is tucked away, perfect for a teen suite, office, or guest room. Gorgeous details in your long foyer, plenty of space to personalize with décor. Double treyed ceilings in living room, with crown moulding. GORGEOUS open kitchen with corner pantry, granite countertops, HUGE double sided island with large overhang for 3-4 barstools. Stainless Steel Frigidaire appliances. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling as well, with crown moulding. raised, double vanities, a very large walk in closet and a separate water closet (toilet room). The Rhett floorplan also has a separate laundry room and COVERED Back Porch! Photos are NOT of Actual house- under construction- similar house. This all brick home features Fabric Shield Hurricane shutter protection. Pictures may be of similar, but not necessarily of subject property, including exterior and interior colors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$19/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,464
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-51/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $325,000 PARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2020-03-23 Sold (MLS) $235,900 PARMLS
• 2019-10-17 Listed $235,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+48.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,464 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.