16629 Allison Way #3 · Soulsbyville, CA 95370

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1986 ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this newly renovated home in an All Age Park centrally located just off of Hwy 108 at the foot of Soulsbyville. This homes features installed in 2023, all new Vinyl Exterior Siding, Central Heating & Air conditioning, Fencing and Awning. Newer back stairs. Freshly painted the entire interior with all new flooring & baseboards. Installed in 2023 new Appliances and Washer/Dryer which all stay with the home. Newer ceiling fan. Plumbing new in 2019. Newer water heater and door. Find your way along the pee gravel walkway providing low maintenance to enjoy the garden area which features a grape vine, strawberry patch, lemon tree, peach tree and hazelnuts. To help care for th

Key facts

• Plumbing new
• Fencing
• Washer dryer

Tags

• VINYL EXTERIOR SIDING
• FENCING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• WASHER DRYER
• NEWER CEILING FAN
• PLUMBING NEW

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed with number and size limits and subject to approval; Community laundry

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home (Single wide, Westfield model)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Porch; Front yard; Garden/play area; Entry gate; Shed(s); Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast bar; Solid-surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid-surface counters; No additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in laundry closet; Dryer; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#731 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.36%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $55,564
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $134,598
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,050

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20381 Sherry Ct Unit A Soulsbyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,195	$1.50	23d	1	1.00mi
19130 Beauchamp Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-03-20
    price $69,900
20. 2026-03-09
    price $99,500
21. 2026-02-12
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥96°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $12,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,931
• After-tax cash flow: $9,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Soulsbyville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #21555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Soulsbyville, CA
• City population: 1,825
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-39.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $69,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $99,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $15 · -78.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.